d0rkyd00d wrote:Gloominary wrote:And the more esoteric the subject, the more difficult it is to make predictions about.
Using yesterday and today's socioeconomic conditions to predict tomorrow's socioeconomic conditions, is a lot easier than using the 3rd millennium BC's technology to predict the 21st century AD's technology.
Disagree with this baseless claim.
An analogy, if a new species is discovered (the future), and we want to make some guesses about it, we should mostly study species most similar to it (the present, the near past), not species most different to it (the distant past).
If you want to get to know a phenomenon, you study a similar phenomenon.
In all likelihood and most ways, the near future will be a lot more similar to the present and near past than the distant past.
I think it's safe to say the socioeconomy is a bit easier to make predictions about than where technology is headed, for most people.