Corona Virus Outbreak from Turd

[Maia]

(The following is from Turd, who asked me to post it.)

I’ve been tracking the Corona Virus outbreak in China since it has been announced at the beginning of the year. Currently it isn’t know if it spreads prior to the first symptoms showing.

I’ve released some money for my friends to get 100 pounds of rice, a large quantity of olive oil, salt (sea salt lacks iodine which is needed when cleaning cuts, so use regular salt), lots of raw garlic to bite into during the ammonia stage of the virus, onions, vinegar and cheap basic vitamins to keep in stock in case a quarantine hits the US. It is smart to keep this stuff around always and the rice can last a long time. It will allow you to stay put and not venture out to find food for months. Extra stuff like honey or canned goods is smart too.

If you have pocket money start building this up. I have assortment of solar panels, various alcohol (91% or denatured) and wood burning stoves, butane and propane as well. I have no intention of going down for a lack of supplies or finding myself unable to use what’s available if I come across some in a emergency scenario. The foundations of ethics is survival, not merely of the self but the group. It is why I’ve always so adamantly opposes the Nietzscheans and other death cults on the forum. What keeps a society living and thriving can be judged in terms of relative advantages as varying degrees of good and bad, and the occasional self sacrifice for the greater good can be warranted and applauded, but human survival has base requirements and it is absolutely necessary if you intend to survive long term through bad circumstance to prepare. Nothing on my suggested reading list is too expensive for most of you or insane to have for the peace of mind merely to have on hand. I strongly recommend having the base food requirements at least.

Thanks you for listening, and Fuck You Sauwelios.

[Tab]

Yeah, I've been tracking this too. All of Turd's suggestions are good.

From the BBC newsite.

The death toll from the new coronavirusnow stands at 106, with the number of infections almost doubling in a day. The number of total cases confirmed by China rose to 4,515 as of 27 January, up from 2,835 a day earlier.

Aerosol contagion is bad news. So is the 14 day incubation period before obvious symptoms show. We don't know much about the deceased, whether there are factors like age, general health prior etc. A death rate of 100 per let's say 5000 isn't high. 1 in 50. However, the next 2 weeks will be the real test. Tbh. I expect the death rate to increase, then plateau, then recede as less virulent strains of the virus out-compete the the real killers. (If a disease kills people slower, or not at all, it lengthens its time to expose itself to others, improving its spread at the expense of other strains).

A total of 60 people had been discharged from hospital after recovery, according to Chinese state media.

Eh, it's China, all these numbers will have some degree of politics linked to them, but taking them at face value, 100 dead, 60 recovered are not insanely bad odds. Especially if you figure in the "surprise" advantage to the virus at the outset. Recovery rate can be expected to go up.

To China's credit, I'm glad the outbreak happened there, their response has been very good, not something the west could have managed, but then the chances are something like this wouldn't happen in more developed countries anyway. These are diseases of severe poverty and ignorance.

In my opinion, a new disease is always bad news sure, but this one isn't a civilisation ending event. Take it seriously, be prepared, but don't pull out your bucket lists just yet.

[promethean75]

So when the strange man in the black suit and tinted sunglasses asked me if I'd like to go with him to wuhan and get some Coronas, he wasn't talking about the beer?

What the hell is going on here?

[MagsJ]

Personally.. I think they should have halted all travel out of China, until travellers had the all-clear.

[iambiguous]

Of course we could just leave it in the hands of God.

Also, two words: bird flu.

Also, also: What news events like this prompt me to go back to is [of course] dasein.

Suppose this virus is the Big One. Suppose it really takes off and spreads like wildfire across the globe. It mutates into a particularly deadly bug. Millions upon millions become infected, thousands upon thousands die. It comes to your own community and you yourself are now in dire peril.

How might that scenario impact "I"? How might what you once thought and felt about any number of things change?

Who will come up with the new rules of behavior which all can agree reflect the moral obligation of all rational people?

Then.

[Antithesis]

Nothing's going to happen.
It's going to be another SAARS, West Nile Virus, Swine/Bird Flue, etcetera.
The media needs a story like a junkie needs their fix.

From what I've read, its death rate is 1/30, that is 1 out of 30 documented cases results in death, but the thing is, there're probably at least dozens, hundreds if not thousands of undocumented cases of it, a lot of people who either didn't get sick, or got mild-moderately sick and didn't bother getting a medical exam.

The WHO hasn't even declared a WHE (world health emergency).

Plus this is China we're talking about, they're not exactly the healthiest people to begin with.
They eat anything/everything, most of the population live in abject poverty, their standards for toxicity are abysmally low, not nearly as well fed and taken care of as us.

Most viruses actually play a vital role in the ecosystem.
They're nature's cleanup crew, they can only attack compromised cells, cells that're already half dead, or aren't fully formed.
If you take care of yourself, 99.9999 times out of a million you don't need to fret.
The body actually makes its own viruses to help break shit down it doesn't need.

[Antithesis]

It's probably just a fake crisis the Chicoms manufactured to exercise their martial law capabilities.
See how well the people will submit to being unnecessarily rounded up, forcibly detained and injected with vaccines loaded with population culling toxins.
And there'll be millions of suckers lined up to get their corona antivirus here too.
The government and big pharm will make billions off this.

[tentative]

I pretty much agree with everyone here. Something that might be missed is that the virus isn't the real societal killer. The real killer is starvation brought on by quarantines. If this shit gets going in a country where half or more of all earnings goes to food purchases, then a quarantine does a much better job of killing people than the virus.

Additionally, the aftermath of one of these bugs destroys the economy. Most of these viral incidents happen in countries with little economic bases. Look at Central Africa countries and Ebola. I'm the CEO of a large corporation looking to build a new widget factory somewhere. I'm going to invest in an Ebola plagued country? Are you out of your fucking mind? Soooo... more starvation where survival is based on eating "bush meat" and the pattern repeats itself over and over.

As for the potential vaccines, they really aren't necessary since only 1 in 30 gets dead. Of course, this assumes that you or a family member isn't going to be that 1 in 30. Like to take the chance? Be my guest.

[Antithesis]

As for the potential vaccines, they really aren't necessary since only 1 in 30 gets dead. Of course, this assumes that you or a family member isn't going to be that 1 in 30. Like to take the chance? Be my guest.

1 out of 30 of documented cases.
And documented cases are much more likely to be much more severe than undocumented cases, because that's how they get documented in the first place, by being severe.
It's probably more like 1 out of 3000 or 30000, about as or less deadly than influenza.
+ like you said, less deadly strains of the virus will spread faster because they don't immediately kill or kill their hosts at all, inoculating the rest of the population to the more severe strains, so its deadliness will probably only diminish with time.
+ Like I said, this is China we're talking about here, their life expectancy is lower than America's, they're several times poorer and their healthcare is probably several times shittier, at least the healthcare the average Chinaman receives.
This is all going to blow over in a few weeks or months.

[Tab]

The whole of China is affected now. Cases doubling exponentially. Really hope it doesn't go right round the world, but can't see how it won't eventually. WHO's declared a world health emergency.

Deaths data has been published, high risk groups are 50+ with either compromised immune systems or outstanding lung problems. Men slightly higher risk than women. Me basically.

Just my opinion but the third world countries are in for hard times perhaps.

[tentative]

The whole of China is affected now. Cases doubling exponentially. Really hope it doesn't go right round the world, but can't see how it won't eventually. WHO's declared a world health emergency.

Deaths data has been published, high risk groups are 50+ with either compromised immune systems or outstanding lung problems. Men slightly higher risk than women. Me basically.

Just my opinion but the third world countries are in for hard times perhaps.

Lung problems... So have you quit smoking yet?

The quarantines are keeping pace with the verified number of victims. Airlines are shutting down in or out flights and travelers everywhere are being screened and suspicious symptoms result in hospital quarantines. It's a panic solution and rightly so since no one really knows until it's too late.

To add to the confusion the question has been raised about the ability of the virus to remain viable on non-organic surfaces such as metals or packaging materials. Maybe the virus can be transmitted on that shiny new smart phone case. If Chinese products come under suspicion, it could easily collapse whole economies. Soooo.... you sure you wanna stay connected?

[Tab]

Switched from cigarettes to vaping about 3-4 years ago, done wonders for my lung capacity.

Lol, was thinking about buying a Huawei phome too.

[tentative]

The list of serious side issues continues to follow the predictable pattern. Three U.S. airlines have suspended all flights in or out of China. We haven't heard from Fed X or UPS on cargo flights but it won't be long... The flow of Chinese container ships will soon slow to a trickle and worldwide manufacturing will begin to slow down because it may say "made In _____" but a lot of the parts are made in China. Initial testing indicates that the virus can survive for at least 14 days on impermiable surfaces. Make that three weeks just to be safe.Sequestering anything made in China for three weeks isn't the end of the world, but it will put a good sized dent in international commerce.

On the medical side, doctors and hospitals say they are not receiving needed quantities of supplies to combat the virus. The Chinese government is doing as much as they can, but no country is equipped to supply all the masks needed fora few billion people.

Even though influenza is killing more people, the scary part of this is the 14 days a well-meaning person can infect hundreds of others before showing symptoms themselves. I'm not sure I buy into all the panic crap pushed by the media, but even a cursory reading of the progress of this virus suggests we're in for some interesting times

[iambiguous]

Just to note that if anyone is interested in exploring a cinematic take on this sort of thing, check out the film Contagion: viewtopic.php?f=24&t=179469&p=2328114&hilit=contagion+directed+by#p2328114

Trailer: https://youtu.be/4sYSyuuLk5g

What I focus on [of course] is the manner in which our understanding of ourselves in the world around us can change dramatically when the world itself changes dramatically. The role that dasein plays.

That and the reality of political economy.

[WendyDarling]

Major US news outlets have been quiet about what is happening in the US the last few days. No updates about the 12 confirmed cases, no mention of a cruise ship that disembarked infected foreign nationals against Trump's travel ban in New Jersey yesterday, and no updates on all the other US citizens on US soil who had been tested for the virus. Not a good sign.

[promethean75]

and no updates on all the other US citizens on US soil who had been tested for the virus. Not a good sign.

are you saying this could be the one, wendy? well tell joker to be ready and keep an open channel for me to communicate with him. if the shit goes down, we're going book of eli.

[Antithesis]

I think in most cases, including this one, viruses are mere symptoms of disease, rather than the cause of disease themselves.
I don't think this Chinese disease will affect us as much as them, and its affect on them has been greatly exaggerated.
The real disease in China isn't so much the corona virus, as the destitution, squalor, impoverishment and malnourishment of its people, which kills many of them off with or without this or another virus.

They've got bad government, and bad habits.
They expose their bodies to too many germs from too many different animals, more than many of them can cope with.
They eat a lot of bad meat, not fresh, and not kosher/halal at all.
They eat a lot of junk food, and there's a lot of chemicals in their food, air and water.
They're also overcrowded and unhygienic.
They're overworked and overstressed.
They stick pins in themselves, and engage in other bizarre 'medical' practices.
They're plagued by superstition, ancestral spirits and odd gods.
They live in constant fear of offending big brother.

All of these things make the body sick, and then viruses prey on sickly bodies, making them all the more sick.
It's like with Ebola, Ebola never caught on here, because we're too strong for it.

[WendyDarling]

and no updates on all the other US citizens on US soil who had been tested for the virus. Not a good sign.

are you saying this could be the one, wendy? well tell joker to be ready and keep an open channel for me to communicate with him. if the shit goes down, we're going book of eli.

Two atheists pretending to be blind (that's a stretch) and willing to recite the Bible word for word? Hahaha! You two got this!

[WendyDarling]

Did I miss some news today about what is happening regarding the coronavirus in the United States?

Canada gave an updated tally of 5 cases not too long ago.

[tentative]

Did I miss some news today about what is happening regarding the coronavirus in the United States?

Canada gave an updated tally of 5 cases not too long ago.

There has been one documented death of an American with another 10 cases reported on the quarantined cruise ships. It really doesn't make any difference the "body" count since any number is already 14 days behind the actual situation. That is the scary part of this virus. You can be an un-witting carrier and it can take up to 14 days before you begin to show disease symptoms. How many people could you be in contact with in a 14 day period? The logistics of trying to identify all potential carriers is beyond the capability of ANY agencies. Look at WHO. They haven't a clue and neither does anyone else.

So far, the only thing we know for sure is that the virus likes heat and humidity. The U.S. will see less contagion only because we are currently in winter conditions. But if this drags into the summer months then the southern states can expect much higher rates of contagion than further north.

This virus has already killed more people than the SARS virus and we have no idea when it will evolve into a less virulent form. At this point, all we have is quarantine for an answer. It may be helping but at a tremendous cost to all economies let alone the personal disruption of so many lives. Everyone is scrambling and trying to find solutions, but they are in a dark room with no light switch.

A side note: Recent ice cores removed from a Tibetan glacier found 30+ different virus forms of which 28 had never been seen by science. Almost all are probably neutral, but could one of them be the virus that takes us out? WARNING. Global warming may be hazardous to your health.

[tentative]

Quick update: Reuters reports 60 new cases on the Princess cruise ship, saying the total is now 160 confirmed cases. Our favorite source of news (FOX) reports 130 new cases. Even the news outlets can't keep up with reporting the "latest".

The best guess at this time is over 900 dead in around 40,000 confirmed cases. That's pretty close to a 1 in 4 kill rate, not the 1 in 130 rate quoted a week or two ago.

Britain has declared an "imminent danger" and you can see that governments are setting up excuses for further quarantines.

Of course, you can ignore this post since the numbers will (or have) changed as I posted.

[MagsJ]

There should be further quarantines, so no excuses necessary.. should have been implemented much sooner/from the beginning, then lives would have been saved, not lost.

[tentative]

There should be further quarantines, so no excuses necessary.. should have been implemented much sooner/from the beginning, then lives would have been saved, not lost.

The loss of life is indeed a concern, but are you factoring in the economic and social upheaval brought about by quarantines? How much psychological damage is done when you are essentially shunned by society? A potential pandemic disease isn't really the problem. It is the consequences that follow the disease that are the societal issues. At what point is quarantine worse than the disease itself? There may not be a convenient answer, but awareness of the negative consequences of quarantine need to be examined before such decisions to quarantine be implemented. Simplistic answers may suit politicians, but the complexity of the situation may not match those answers.

[Antithesis]

You people are hilarious.
Time to get your aluminum and genetically modified fetal tissue laden corona vaccinations then.
Remember big gov and pharma love you.
It's funny how you guys think the confirmed cases are the only cases.
There's probably millions of unconfirmed, because this virus has little-no effect on most people.

[phyllo]

Quick update: Reuters reports 60 new cases on the Princess cruise ship, saying the total is now 160 confirmed cases. Our favorite source of news (FOX) reports 130 new cases. Even the news outlets can't keep up with reporting the "latest".

The best guess at this time is over 900 dead in around 40,000 confirmed cases. That's pretty close to a 1 in 4 kill rate, not the 1 in 130 rate quoted a week or two ago.

Britain has declared an "imminent danger" and you can see that governments are setting up excuses for further quarantines.

Of course, you can ignore this post since the numbers will (or have) changed as I posted.

Current status is reported here :
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... n-reports/