Carleas wrote:But there were a dozen people on that call, some of whom have testified in the House to the content of the call, and others who have been subpoenaed who have much better insight into Trump's mental state in relation to the request. We don't have any reason to believe that this is someone close enough to Trump to have any insight into Trump's intention or meaning (indeed, we actually know who it was and we know that he wasn't at all close to Trump). The whistleblower just isn't that valuable as a witness given the other witnesses we have.
I am going to conditionally concede the point assuming the whistleblower is who he is widely reported to be, even though, "We don't know and could get sued for saying we do."
In this case, based on who he is reported to be, here is what we have:
1.) Registered Democrat.
2.) Millennial.
3.) Ivy-League educated.
4.) Grew up affluently.
He also worked under President Barack Obama and directly under Vice-President Joe Biden in a similar capacity to his current capacity as CIA analyst dealing with issues relevant to Russia/Ukraine.
Carleas, we need to have a little talk, but first, I'll stipulate and allow for a few things:
1.) None of this changes the conduct of the call.
2.) None of this changes the actions or intentions of the call, nor does it change anything that happened before/after the call.
First of all, I would suggest that the whistleblower, if not directly linked to the President per se, can certainly offer a unique insight into affairs concerning Ukraine because affairs concerning Ukraine is a major part of his job.
Secondly, this is definitely less impactful than if the whistleblower had been, say, Mike Pence. The whistleblower, while admittedly not overtly political, checks basically every box of the prototypical Democrat. The fact that this individual, if he is indeed the whistleblower, saw fit to escalate the whole Ukrainian thing to this level is, therefore, hardly surprising.
You may counter, as I have seen, that there is no evidence that this person is a political activist. But, I mean, he's CIA. He probably wants to keep his job. I imagine being openly against someone who is at least indirectly above you (i.e. The President) is a good way not to keep your job.
Also, I consider that this whistleblowing might actually
be irresponsible and done without an eye towards the long-term stability of the country.
Think about it:
1.) This action caused further divisiveness within the citizens of this country at a time that we may be more politically divided than ever.
2.) This action was always extremely unlikely to result in anything aside from the Impeachment itself. I think that we can agree that it is true that Trump is extremely unlikely to be removed from office unless he were Impeached for reasons that are, what's the technical term I'm looking for........
like, really, really bad.3.) This action may lend to political instability down the line. Many things change when one President leaves office and another President takes office, though I think that we could agree that as many working parts (especially at the operative levels) as possible staying the same leads to continued stability. People can keep doing what they are doing. One CEO replacing another in a business almost never, if ever, has led to the dismissal of as many employees as possible below the CEO. Businesses would be going down the tubes left and right if that happened.
Now, there may be different policies, laws, stipulations, etc...that would prevent such a thing from happening immediately...but could future Presidents do it to as great an extent as possible over fear of something like this? Let's put aside the matter as relates Trump directly for a second and focus on a few things that you have advanced:
1.) "High Crimes and Misdemeanors," do not necessarily require a thing to be a crime or a misdemeanor at all.
2.) The term is open very much to interpretation, and even if that is not acceptable, it must be accepted for now.
3.) General conduct could be Impeachable.
We may draw different conclusions here, but I think what this leads to is that the House of Representatives can Impeach (and the Senate theoretically remove) virtually any President for virtually any reason that it believes to be acceptable.
Ignoring that aspect for a second, does it not stand to reason that a President would therefore want to staff, to the greatest degree possible, with people who like him and generally agree with his policies? If I were Donald Trump and one of my priorities was to get rid of anyone who I saw as a potential threat, this suggested whistleblower would be packing his box on Day 1. If not that, he would be getting sent somewhere else to do something else that is not related in any way whatsoever to anything that I do or might be doing.
But, if it becomes the case that such a thing is seen as desirable (cost/benefit) we sacrifice stability.
But, even with all of that, I would LOVE nothing more than to call him as a witness because I would like to hear what his perspective on what the whole Ukraine thing is, in general. I would also like to hear, from his unique viewpoint,
could there have been any possible legitimate reason to investigate the Bidens.
I don't actually think this matters much. For one thing, there's a good argument that withholding the aid as long as he did was illegal (as DoD lawyers pointed out to the White House at the time). But for another thing, even if it was entirely a bluff, what he's bluffing for is an improper use of the office (more on that below).
Save me some research, please. Is it merely a good argument that it could have been illegal, or would I conclude that withholding it as long as he did was definitely illegal? Because, right now in the world of the politicos, I have seen many unrelated arguments (even before this) both for and against Impeachment, and have found almost none (on either side) to be particularly compelling. I guess the burden would also be more on those who favor Impeachment, probably for more than these two reasons, but at least because of these two reasons:
1.) It's just an unusual thing to do.
2.) It's an action rather than an inaction. What is the case (President Trump is President Trump) will remain the case without Impeachment and Removal from Office. It will also remain the case if he is not removed. In general, I think most people require a sufficient motivator to effectuate something that is not already the case.
Yeah, I am proceeding under the assumption that the statement itself is not the totality of evidence of the existence of a threat. If the only evidence we have is the statement, then we agree that it matters whether it's implicit or explicit. But if, as here, we have the statement, together with overt acts by the person making the statement showing that they intend to follow through (military aid was actually withheld), and over acts by the person being threatened showing that they understood the statement to be a threat (Zelensky was actually preparing to announce an investigation), we have corroborating evidence that shows it was intended and received as a threat. In that case, it's no defense to say, "well yes, but I only implicitly said X, so the fact that I intended to communicate X and that he understood me to be communicating X doesn't count".
In this case and to the first sentence, that's exactly why I want to hear from as many people as possible. I believe that I have read the phone call transcript and that, taken by itself, is completely insufficient for me to have been inclined to do anything whatsoever. One thing I notice about Trump's speech patterns...he jumps from thought to thought and it takes him a long time to ever actually say anything. He often doesn't really manage to convey a thought, which I think is by choice. Since President Trump does not often convey clear thoughts, I think it is possible that it could maybe just be a misunderstanding:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u ... 9.2019.pdfLike, does Page 2, "Interfere," with the relationship between Ukraine and Germany? Should we impeach him for interference in matters that don't directly involve us in terms of direct relationships with other countries? I'm sure there's some obscure/ambiguous term that could be made to fit.
I like the top of Page 3. If I were Zelensky, I would be thinking, "WTF did he just ask me to do? No, really, WHAT was the meaning of the words?" And, I'm a native English speaker.
Also on Page 3, Zelensky freely says, "All of the investigations will be done openly and candidly." Does that include the investigation for which Trump is purportedly withholding aid? Certainly someone talked to Zelensky and someone else to Trump prior to this phone call. How can Trump pressure Ukraine to do what they have already said they are doing?
Next, the first time, "Biden," comes out of Trump's mouth...absent any accompanying threat that I can see...Zelensky says that he intends to put in place a prosecutor, who will definitely get through approval because his party is in the majority wherever that is relevant, and that the prosecutor will investigate it. It sounds like, in order for the prosecutor to be nominated by Zelensky, the person will be required to have already spoken to Zelensky and agreed to do this. Zelensky then asks Trump for any additional information he might have on an investigation into some Ambassador.
While I accept that convincing me changes nothing...I have to ask...what is supposed to be wrong with anything whatsoever in the call itself? I have to assume that something is supposed to be wrong outside of the call. And, because of that, I would want to hear from as many witnesses as I possibly could. You should also want witnesses. I thought the Democrats were mad right now because there might be no witnesses?
Anything that follows after this conversation, in my view, would only pertain to the investigation that Zelensky (based on the conversation) said he was already going to do as part of, "All of the investigations," before Trump even asked about it. Something must have happened before this conversation in order for anything to be a problem.
Also, has Zelensky not directly denied that he took there to be a quid pro quo arrangement here?
Getting back to your hypothetical, doesn't it fall apart if the speaker is not completely direct
and the person being spoken to did not even get that message from it?
I don't think this is a sharp distinction. If Trump had gotten Congress to vote to withhold aid, I don't think anyone would bat an eye; is that what is is or how it's done? In a government of laws, how it's done is baked into what it is, and acts can be legitimate or illegitimate, criminal or lawful, based on how they're done.
I mainly meant in terms of perception, but we agree on this as a general point. My point was simply that parties involved (whistleblower included) might have simply not liked the way all of this was done, but not so much a problem with the thing that was done itself. You have stated that the withholding of the aid (for as long as it was withheld) may well have been illegal by itself. I guess that would be a good avenue of pursuit.
I think it goes to sincerity of the shock. If they were all Obama appointees, it would be easy to write off the shock as affected. Where it's Republican appointees, Trump appointees, it suggests the shock is actually about a perceived violation of norms.
The whistleblower, if that is who it is, was certainly not a Republican appointee.
This is a solid point.
Tangentially, one thing I've long thought the Constitution needed was a much more robust system of amendments. I've even toyed with the idea that a much more minimal document should have been written which established the rules for making future constitutions, e.g. providing for periodic Constitutional Conventions. One big problem with the Constitution is that it hasn't been amended enough, because it has needed updating many times and many times it's been too hard to achieve. That creates a kind of pressure build up, which would be dissipated in a system where the document could shift a little more freely. It's a delicate balance, and I can't fault the Founders for getting it a little wrong, but they erred too far towards preventing change.
I agree with everything said, but would counter that the Founders got it more than, "A little wrong," and my statement as relates would be, "The Constitution is almost totally fucking stupid."
How much can you really do with a document that essentially forces a reference back to itself when it itself is very limited?
I think this doesn't give the Founders enough credit. The notes from the various ratifying conventions show vigorous debate around ratification, with different factions arguing it goes to far or doesn't go far enough. The 3/5 Compromise, for as horrible as it is, is pretty clear evidence that the authors went to frankly absurd lengths to appease opposing factions on the hot button issues of the day. It may not seem like that today, but in an era where everyone who mattered in politics was a wealthy white male, they built as many bridges as possible within that exclusive demographic.
Yeah, unintended consequences and all of that. I think some of this could have been preventable, but I wasn't there, so who knows? It doesn't make it any less stupid
now. The fact that it even must be dealt with now is on the Founders, but yeah, I don't know how much was foreseen or could have been.
Anyway, they made it too hard to amend. I could forgive that, but completely tying the hands and restricting the highest court in the land...I really have a tough time with that.
This too is a solid point.
I do think liberal and conservative something a bit different in the context of Supreme Court justices than they do in the context of politicians, but it is still the case that many important and seemingly unrelated outcomes can be predicted based on the politics of the justices (why should privacy and bodily integrity jurisprudence be correlated with 2nd amendment jurisprudence?).
Exactly. Lifetime appointments are also stupid. As we so often see, it makes the political leanings of the potential justice matter even
more. It can't even be seen as having the goal of a person being relatively Moderate, otherwise, you would need more than a simple majority of the Senate.
I guess it might not have been seen as much of a problem at that time because, in Article 1, Section 3 and how it used to be (1913), Senators for each state were put in place by State Legislatures who...pursuant to the Tenth Amendment...could decide what the process of voting for Senators for that state should be. In other words, the states' Legislatures could go 2/3rds, majority, 3/4th's...whatever they wanted.
So, I think that the whole process of an individual ascending to the Supreme Court was at least expected to go through layers and layers of lawmakers (indirectly) before that could actually happen.
The House of Representatives could kind of be the rabble who screams at one another until they, as if by accident, actually manage to send a bill to The Senate for their vote. The House would be more, "Of the people," while the Senate might be more analytical, particularly legally. Perhaps more objective, considering that appealing to the masses wouldn't really be much of a concern.
HOUSE: Dude, wouldn't it be cool if? House Votes 310-125, in favor.
SENATE: That's a really stupid idea for a whole litany of reasons. I really wish The Constitution would have given you guys some sort of babysitter. Senate Votes 97-3, opposed.
But, yeah, I'll be a little more forgiving on the SCOTUS thing because they obviously had no reason to know or believe that the means by which the Senate is made up should ever change. Lifetime appointments remain stupid. The highest court in the land being tied to one document remains stupid.
If France arrested a candidate with the intent of changing the outcome of an election, that wouldn't be foreign interference? That seems untenable. It also seems intention with your claim here:
If France knew that the charges were false, it would. But, a wise philosopher known as my mother always said, "Sayin' ain't doin'."
If France announces an investigation it knows is vacuous and it does so with the intent to change the outcome of an investigation, I don't see the difference. When a public official announces a criminal investigation, that strongly suggests that it has some reason to conduct such an investigation, i.e. that it has some evidence of wrongdoing. Strictly speaking, that isn't fabricated evidence, but when real evidence exists it isn't generally provided when the investigation is announced, so knowningly announcing an investigation for which insufficient evidence exists is effectively fabricating some unnamed piece of evidence (and which in context we would expect to be unnamed).
I guess my point is that I don't see the difference between one guy saying something and some other guy saying something. Foreign leaders lie about our leaders (not just referring to Trump), like, all the time. What's the qualitative difference between one lie and another lie?
Furthermore, I don't think that Trump or Zelensky would automatically conclude or, 'know,' that any such investigation would be vacuous.
I also don't think there was any Russian interference in any sense that would matter to me. I would be loathe to take someone's vote away, and support no law that would do so...but if someone made his/her voting decision based in whole or majority part because of something that person saw on Facebook, then I conclude that person:
A.) Is an idiot.
OR:
B.) Is not an idiot, but does not care enough about the political process such that he/she really should be voting.
So, I'd never question that person's right to do so, but I would definitely prefer if that person would abstain of his/her own volition.
I see all these campaigns to drive up voter turnout purportedly in general (but I know who is funding it and know what the likely correlation of the target market of the ads represents, on the basis of any individual ad) and it makes me want to puke a little bit. I think on each position or office being voted upon, voting would be much better (and result in better things) if a person could detail
at least one contrast in a particular policy position as well as what the possible effect of that policy position might be. Don't just look at a candidate's stated goal, look at whether or not the policy behind the stated goal is actually likely to possibly achieve that goal.
But, that's just a question of who I would prefer to be voting and who I would prefer to stay at home...or maybe at least not feel the need to vote in each individual category. Do you know that there are actually people who think you have to make a vote in each individual category lest your ballot be thrown out!? Scary, I know.
Also, the straight ticket button should be illegal.
This can't be right. Impeachments and indictments are accusations, and they are different in kind from the same number of people making an accusation of the same conduct. More generally, when someone makes an accusation in their offical capacity as the representative for some larger body, particularly one charged with making formal accusations of wrongdoing, those accusations are different in kind.
I meant no accusation from an individual person about a different individual person outside of a judicial context, I should have been specific. I won't even say, "More specific," because that gives me too much credit. I assumed a contextual clue that was not there and I apologize. I reread it. The contextual clue was not there in what I wrote or what you said prior. I mean, it was to me, but not
clearly enough there.
I've been trying to work on it for years. It's tough to find a balance between avoiding verbosity (my natural inclination and writing style) while simultaneously avoiding going from Point A to Point C on the map when I should have scheduled a stop at Point B to smell the flowers. Hopefully Easter Lillies.