Pedro's Corner

Half-formed posts, inchoate philosophies, and the germs of deep thought.

Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 4:40 am



Oud metal.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 3:21 pm

Some relevant recent posts:
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 3:21 pm

Pedro I Rengel wrote:On Technical Analysis in The Markets and The Walking Man

There are tradeable patterns in the buying and selling of financial instruments but, like evolution can only work by virtue of unpredictable accidents, they are only able to exist thanks to what is known as the walking man.

Opponents of the concept of what is known as technical trading, or trading based purely on the patterns that are formed by the price history of an instrument as it is shaped by buying and selling, oppose it on the basis of the walking man. The idea is that at any given time a price for an instrument, if only the price action is taken into account with no consideration for the value of the instrument, is just as liable to go up as it is to go down or stay the same. 50-50. Or 33.33^-33.33^-33.33^. I can't remember why they call it a walking man, I guess the man walks where he pleases and you can't predict where he is going or something.

Ostensibly, a technical analyst would counter that the walking man is a falsity, as there are definite predictable patterns in price action. Elliot Wave theorists go to some trouble to prove the essential geometrical nature of it.

But the truth, and what probably most technical analysts would agree with, is that the patterns only work and are tradeable because the walking man is true. If we were talking about mathematical patterns so exact that they can be called geometry, a computer would already exist that could predict every movement, and everybody would trade the computer's advice, and the whole concept would be negated. For every buy trade there needs to be someone selling, and vice-versa. There are patterns, and they can be traded. But they always form within the context of the walking man, of the price going any which way at any given time. Annoyingly, a bullish pattern can evolve into a bearish pattern seamlessly, that is to say, in a way so that when the bear trend sets there is no incongruity in the bear pattern. There can always be a wider pattern at work. Or you can predict a movement, but if it stops after or before a certain level, it will precipitate a trend in either direction. Nobody ever has access to all of the variables but, the point is, even if you did, the walking man would be there. Proof of this is that IBM doesn't have a supercomputer that trades with 100% accuracy. It's not a geometrical event that tends towards randomness, it's a random event that tends toward geometrical patterns. Like life, like reality. Most people have the unfortunate habit of thinking backwards.

But patterns do form, which makes sense. You always have the same agents, or types of agents, dealing with the same variables, or types of variables. These patterns formed in feudal Japan, and they form today, and they will keep forming as long as public trading of pieces of action of commerce exists. The same patterns formed before supercomputers started being employed for trading as they do now, when billions of dollars are invested in them. After all, prices simply reflect the conditions surrounding the commercial activity being traded. More often than not, it takes the form of a tug-of-war rather than a snake trail. Strength is shown on the buy side or on the sell side, and the extent to which this strength is shown moves the price. Some would prefer to buy, some would prefer to sell, but the majority will win. Since nobody wants to lose money and traders are careful, these movements will happen in tight patterns. You pull as much as you can to your side but, as soon as you realize you are overpowered, you let go of the rope. Or you let go a little bit, and then pull. Etc.

Pedro I Rengel wrote:Also, if you need further proof that markets are just humans doing stuff and not precise mathematical equations, just look at what happens near round numbers on any chart for really anything.
Last edited by Pedro I Rengel on Mon Nov 30, 2020 5:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 3:21 pm

Pedro I Rengel wrote:
Pedro I Rengel wrote:From Hitler's Speech to the Workers of Berlin (10 December 1940)

"We see that the primary cause for the existing tensions lies in the unfair distribution of the riches of the earth. And it is only natural that evolution follows the same rule in the larger framework as it does in the case of individuals. Just as the tension existing between rich and poor within a country must be compensated for either by reason or often if reason fails, by force, so in the life of a nation one cannot claim everything and leave nothing to others.... "

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Adolf_Hi ... ember_1940)


Just in case anybody got any ideas of forgetting.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 3:47 pm

Wow, this is a real privilege to have this recording:

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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 5:52 pm



51:45 :o
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 6:55 pm

Now that we are past the lag (many thanks to our wonderful host), we might begin commenting on day 2 of Magus vs So. The Magus up one game with the black pieces, things looking awfully dire for So. That was a masterful game. He played a purposefully constrained position that was put together in a way so that the end game would be entirely under his control, and through some manly sacrifices made promotion of one of his pawns inevitable. Real jiu jitsu chess.

So, even though he had a much wider position in the middle game, constantly found himself having to bend over backwards to free up his pieces, one of his rooks even going into the end game sandwiched between a knight and his king on the last rank.

Whatever you do, for fuck's sake, don't give Magnus connected passed pawns. I don't think I have seen him lose one single game where he has those.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 6:59 pm

Game 2 looking a lot like game 1 of the first day. All out war from the start, they both want to measure eachother in another end game.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:07 pm

A6 was classy, simply constraining Magnus's knight for the entire end game.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:13 pm

I may have spoke too soon. So seems to be forming some kind of attack on the king's side.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:23 pm

So is terrifying.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:25 pm

I think chess should be promoted like boxing. The players should have managers and they should focus on head-to-head matches. With trash talking and the whole shebang.

If they did this, they might even dethrone FIDE.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:27 pm

At a press conference...

"E4!!!!!!"

"Gentlemen, gentlemen, save it for the match."
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:28 pm

ffs c1
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:34 pm

Looking good for So. He might win it. Magus will have to tread veeery carefully, but I don't know how you stop that central pawn.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:37 pm

wat

Magus just gave up his bishop
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:37 pm

Did I miss something? Knight d8?
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:38 pm

Oh duh it's pinned...
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:38 pm

Rated 1800 on lichess, ladies and gentlemen....
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:43 pm

Only MA finds a way out of a jam like that.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:45 pm

I think this is either a draw or a win for white. Once the tensions get released, if there is more than one group of pawns, the bishop gives way too big of an advantage over the horse.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:45 pm

I think I suck at chess.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:46 pm

Holy Christ this match.

So takes it.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:47 pm

That is two wins with the black pieces.

In the name of Jehova.
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Re: Pedro's Corner

Postby Pedro I Rengel » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:48 pm

That was a masterclass in the use of knights against bishops.
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