[b]Daniel Kahneman
The gorilla study illustrates two important facts about our minds: we can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.[/b]
Deaf and dumb too.
An inability to be guided by a “healthy fear” of bad consequences is a disastrous flaw.
Topped only by an unhealthy fear for some.
We know that people can maintain an unshakable faith in any proposition, however absurd, when they are sustained by a community of like-minded believers.
For example: knowthyself.forumotion.net/f6-agora
There’s a lot of randomness in the decisions that people make.
In fact you might even call it a pattern.
Dawes observed that the complex statistical algorithm adds little or no value. One can do just as well by selecting a set of scores that have some validity for predicting the outcome and adjusting the values to make them comparable (by using standard scores or ranks). A formula that combines these predictors with equal weights is likely to be just as accurate in predicting new cases as the multiple-regression formula that was optimal in the original sample. More recent research went further: formulas that assign equal weights to all the predictors are often superior, because they are not affected by accidents of sampling.
So, what do you think, blah, blah, blah?
…declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.
In other words, an incoherent story.