An excerpt from a 2017 article in the Washington Post:
[i]"How would Trump’s hardcore supporters react to the removal of their president for a high crime or misdemeanor that fell somewhat short of a triple ax murder? Not with equanimity, you can be assured. Does that matter? Maybe not. But the “civil war” cited in the New Yorker article was not of armies marching across fields, but of civil unrest — a lot of angry people causing a lot of mayhem.
The precedent may not be America from 1861 to 1865, but pre-war Europe. The recent skirmishes here between ultra-nationalists on the far right and the so-called antifa on the far left are reminiscent of the brawls between fascists and communists that weakened German democracy in the 1920s and 1930s. The extremes sucked the air out of the center. In Yeats’s enduring words, things fell apart. The center could not hold."[/i]
Many of your answers are about, “it depends”. Yes, there are many variables to consider in such a scenario of conflict. But whatever they may be the overriding reality would be as the quote says, ‘a lot of angry people causing a lot of mayhem’. If one happens to find themselves dealing with angry people and mayhem then ‘it depends’ would still be an element in your decisions but with very little of the ease which we can discuss it here on a forum in times where the center is still holding.
If you see a tornado in the distance and it’s coming in your direction your decisions have to be quick and underlying them there has to be a sense that you will succeed. The strength of that sense is the chance that you give yourself. Some will say 50/50, others will go more in one direction or the other. My bet is that those who keep it at 50/50 or higher in their favor are going to do better than others. If that is wild speculation, then that is what is needed to increase your chances of survival.
In this conflict the only immediate framing would be to stabilize the situation. As to how much the military, and for that matter the National Guard and police, would follow the framing intended for stability is also of concern. Just because they’re wearing uniforms and badges does not mean that some of them won’t themselves be, “people causing a lot of mayhem.” Look at history and you’ll find numerous examples of the protectors becoming wolves.
One can armchair as much as they want about actions depending on this, that, or the other, but when the pilot light triggers the flames it’s time to get up from the chair and act with the sole purpose of survival.
Here’s an article about what might happen if Trump is defeated in 2020. Read it.
“Those who assume otherwise haven’t been paying attention.”