Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

The problem with that though is he’d need $2500 to open the account with margin just to have 2:1 leverage and only expect to make 1-5% at best. And from this lofty position in the market it seems to be a lot of risk. I’m not sure if he could open a cash account with $500. Used to be able to. But the amount of return wouldn’t make it worth bothering, imo.

I think the only reason he is doing this is that he wants to bet against the USD. He just wants a bookie to take his bet.

I’ve opened a DEMO account twenty minutes ago, I’ll make a thread on currency trading so we can discuss this more there. :wink:

Forex.com says

The minimum initial deposit required is at least 50 of your selected base currency. However, we recommend you deposit at least 2,500 to allow you more flexibility and better risk management when trading your account. forex.com/en-us/support/faqs/popular-faqs/

I think you’ll have to scan your DL and power bill or something and email it in. Then fund your account with a debit card. They used to take credit cards pre 2015 lol

I think you’d need at least $200 to put the USD/UNH short on and hold it. If it moves against you, the software will sell you out when it hits $99 and that’s what you will have left. You can make it back though since it only takes $20 to place a EURUSD trade :smiley: China is more volatile, so they require more margin.

Let’s move this discussion of currency trading to this thread here as this thread is primarily about global economic collapse. :laughing:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=193958&p=2698069#p2698069

Post all your latest posts there and we’ll talk there as I have a feeling that I have a lot to learn from you. :wink:

All that is good advice, but UNP was $70 in 2016 and is now almost twice that. It doubled in 2 yrs and could suffer a correction. He could be sitting on loses for a while. True, he still gets the dividend. But yeah that’s the thing to do if your eye is on the long term.

I don’t think you’re understanding the nature of computershare. It’s not a trading platform. It’s a transfer agent that handles direct stock purchases from companies who offer those kinds of plans. So it’s not an account that you trade in. It’s strictly buy and hold until you want them to mail you a check. No instant execution, no margin, none of that. He doesn’t even have 100 bucks to throw into the game, so his best bet is to start saving money by buying shares and holding them and letting the dividend drip. Then once he’s got some money he can think about betting against the dollar. I mean…I’ll bet him 100 bucks on whatever he wants. He doesn’t even really need an account of any kind for that.

Ameritrade has no minimum to open an account, so he could do a money market checking attached to an individual brokerage and at least get better than basic savings interest on his balance while he gathers up cash and gets ready to make a move. He can trade a bunch of ETFs without fees there if he holds them for 30 days. But the same problem exists for him with such a small amount of money. If he pays 7 bucks commission 2 times on a buy and on a sell with 100 bucks in the game, then he needs to see more than a 14 percent gain to beat the taxes and fees if he’s even going to make enough money to buy a soda.

He should just be saving, and buying and holding old school blue chips without paying any fees is a good way to do that.

I suspect it’s in all cases, but I haven’t verified it. I know there is no oil etf that matches the spot price exactly and some are better than others.

Yeah I like index funds.

They got overleveraged. Risk management is #1!

Yeah trading currencies is the hardest thing on the planet. There is more money there than anywhere else and highly competitive.

Dollar cost averaging over time is a good idea. Yeah man, you have the right plan.

Yes, don’t eat your seed crop, as Molyneux says when discussing the difference in r/k selected people.

You’re right, I had no idea. That’s seems like a great thing!

Maybe you guys should work something out.

How many times do you mention something being boring on here? That’s such a trickling of money that it won’t hold his attention.

Yes, get rich slowly. getrichslowly.org/

You have the right idea, but I think he wants to gamble on the dollar because of all the youtube videos he watched.

Well actually because I believe very soon China and the BRICS nations including Russia are about to give the United States along with the dollar a run down for its money especially since recently the yuan has become gold backed. What does the United States have, bitcoin? :laughing:

Then let him open an ameritrade and throw 100 bucks at a bearish dollar etf. If it takes more than 30 days for the dollar to tank, then he’d have held it for 30 days and avoided commissions, thus fucking over the bank and getting to watch the world burn. It’d be a hell of a day for someone with his view.

I’m not sure what the gold backing really means. Every country has foreign currencies in reserve and gold is just another one of those.

I’m short the USD against New Zealand and long the USD against Australia because that’s the way the interest rates are set to my benefit and it hedges me. I’m long the USD against the yen for the interest and short the EURNZD for the interest. I offset the EURNZD short with a sizeable EURUSD long because I’m pretty sure the euro can only go up as the ECB tapers. I hedge that with a GBPUSD short, which pays interest, and of course the USDJPY long.

USDRUB (russia) pays a good interest, but requires too much margin to hold it. USDZAR (south africa) pays a lot of interest too.

So I do a lot of fiddling lol

Yeah that’s a good idea, but probably wouldn’t make much at 1:1 leverage.

Yeah, I am definitely bearish against the long term prospects of the American dollar.

Kind of reminds me of a shell game. :wink:

Bearish etf fund is probably mostly euro. USD indexes usually are.

Another day where the U.S. DOW sheds another 500 points.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRiDcv19luo[/youtube]

This song is devoted to the constant roller coaster ride of the United States economy and stock market this year of 2018.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1cbsLKXasQ[/youtube]

And you’ll notice the USD got stronger.

Usually, when stocks go down, the yen is the strongest, followed by the USD, then EUR, then GBP, then CAD, then NZD, then AUD. AUD takes it on the chin from all other majors. So if the market crashes, the yen, usd, euro, and pound will soar and will need moar QE infinity to hold them down somewhat.

When Fukushima happened, the yen skyrocketed and the G7 convened to sanction yen selling (buying other currencies) to hold it down. That’s why I say if Japan sunk into the ocean and ceased to be a country, the yen would go infinite, which makes no sense, but that’s how the computers are programmed. The yen is THE most desired thing on the planet, apparently.

I believe this is the end game of the United States dollar through devaluation and being slowly squeezed out of the international oil markets which is the United States Achilles heel.

A lot of computer programmers and designers are Japanese. Correlation? :-k

I hope you’re right because I am net-short the usd, but a market crash will negate that. Essentially I’m net-long US stocks.

Look at japan tradingeconomics.com/japan/cent … ance-sheet Click max. Look at all that printing, but the yen just won’t go down.

USDJPY was 300 in the 70s and now the yen is much stronger in spite of all the printing. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXJPUS

And in spite of near-zero interest rates for 20 years fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INTDSRJPM193N

Imagine if they stopped printing or raised rates? The yen would knock the moon from the sky!