We help people who need it by providing food, clothing, discounted shelter and healthcare, etc. We don’t give them a paycheck. There is quite a difference here.
Welfare nets ought to be limited in duration as well, and focused more on helping people become productive members of society. The problem is that people don’t have jobs or don’t have good jobs. So try to fix that first. Job training programs for example should be connected to receiving welfare benefits, in addition to welfare benefits being short-term only.
The more you pay someone to not do something, the more they are going to not do it. At the point you make UBI enough money to be livable for people at a basic level, you just incentivized people to never work a day in their lives. This is the opposite of a solution. The solution is to help structure society and incentives and benefits in such a way that increases the productivity of people; the UBI idea does the exact opposite and increases the lack of productivity of people by rewarding and subsidizing it.
Plus, if you give UBI rather than food stamps for example, you encourage people to spend their UBI on drugs. Another huge problem, since drug use/abuse is a big problem among the poor.
And as I said, we cannot afford it. Simply can’t. This is just a fact. Even if we cut the budget for the Pentagon in half we would still be nowhere near paying for even the most modest UBI for just the people who would “really need it” (lowest tax bracket for income, or who pay no income taxes). And yes I am aware that everyone pays taxes in some form or another, like sales tax, but a huge number of people make so little income that they get back whatever was withheld on their paychecks to begin with. Insufficient income is a huge problem for lots of people, even if they work one or more full time jobs. So why not redirect more money to restructuring society to improve overall economics, rather than wasting money on giving people a few more cheeseburgers and hits of heroin a month?
In one case, the government pays a bunch of bureaucrats to decide what poor people need, then give sweetheart deals to well-connected business who sell food, clothing, and discounted shelter and healthcare, and then give those goods and services to give to people who value them less than the price that was paid for them and who know better than the bureaucrats what they really need.
In the other case, the government just gives everyone a small amount of money. It’s cheap, it’s direct, it’s effective, it’s not infantilizing, and it doesn’t line the pockets of any senator’s friends.
This isn’t what UBI is. UBI is universal, it goes to everyone. Someone who isn’t working is getting it, and keeps getting it even if they get a job. That’s a benefit, because it removes the functionally huge tax rates that are imposed by means-tested programs.
Enabled, perhaps, but not incentivized. Similar to the above, individuals get no more money for staying home than they do for working.
This problem is touted often, but the empirical evidence we don’t bear it out. First, the relationship between drug use and wealth is not straightforward. People seem to try drugs at roughly equal rates, but the wealthy tend to be better able to recover from addition (which stands to reason, as treatment costs money). Second, evidence from the limited studies we have show that people tend to maintain or decrease their spending on drugs and alcohol in the presence of a UBI. Third, we also have evidence more generally that a addictive behavior is exacerbated by a lack of options, something the UBI provides both directly (cash to move to a new city) and indirectly (your neighbors are better able to pay you to shovel snow or garden or babysit).
Again, I think this is generally not true, but here, we’re talking about a fully funded UBI. There’s no question of whether we can afford it, because the proposal is to create a new tax and pay out only what we take in.
This is only true if we don’t include what’s taken out of paychecks for payroll taxes, social security, and the like, which is just a linguistic trick. The effective tax rate for basically everyone is positive, i.e. almost everyone is paying more in taxes than they’re receiving in tax returns.
I agree that this is the aim, but I actually think that a UBI does a better job at restructuring society than other welfare programs. The UBI provides people with autonomy and opportunity. It redistributes wealth and therefore both political power and private sector services. The redistribution is both in terms of putting a greater percentage of social wealth in the bottom, and in terms of moving money from wealthy areas to poor areas. Decreasing government decision making in the domain of social welfare spending decreases rent-seeking and lobbying, and it reduces the size and expense of the administrative state. It structures society in the direction of individual choice.
If this leads some people to working fewer hours (and results on this in real-world experiments are mixed; where people did choose to work less, their time was spent with their families, which probably produces better citizens in the next generation), that isn’t necessarily an evil (as I’ve argued before, a growing percentage of the population will simply be unable to contribute to the economy). And even where it is an evil, the net result is likely to be positive, and to deny society a UBI because certain people will become fully parasitic on society is cutting of the nose to spite the face. Or, as a wise man might call it, “virtue signaling”.
Ah, good to know. Allow me to update the numbers to reflect this.
$200 a month x 12 months x 326,291,926 people = $783,100,622,400 a year.
Yep.
I would not call $783,100,622,400 a year “cheap”, would you?
On the drugs issue, of course there is a relationship here to consider, why do you think food stamps are paid out in such a way that cannot be cashed for… cash? You are required to spend this money only on certain kinds of items, because the government and welfare systems realize that if you just hand a person $100 they’re not necessarily going to spend it on bread and cheese and milk. And if they go buy alcohol or crack with it, then where does that leave your “welfare” system?
But yeah, of course rich people also use drugs. That wasn’t at all my point to claim they don’t. As for the issue of evidence that people decrease spending on drugs and alcohol with UBI, what is this evidence? As for the issue of addictive behavior being exacerbated by lack of options, sure, that is definitely possible in many cases, but again that doesn’t ameliorate the issue one bit. Giving someone $200 a month extra doesn’t exactly free up their options in a significant way if they’re already in poverty. Hell, I am middle class and I basically live in poverty too, due to just the sheer cost of living in this fucking place these days. You really think $200 a month will do it? I say we would need at least $500 a month to make the kind of impact you seem to want (to “increase their options” etc.), in which case we are talking about an annual cost of… well I will let you do the math on that one
And don’t let me forget to point out that you’re making my point for me when you say that a lack of options exacerbates addictive behavior… I was the one who pointed out that drug use/abuse is a big problem among the poor, remember?
You’re talking about $783,100,622,400. Do you get that? That is 783 BILLION dollars every single year. That is over half of the annual budget for the entire federal government. You can’t just tax that out of the system… I’m sure you know how much of the government is funded: not by taxes, but by deficits. This is why balanced budgets are so fucking difficult to get from Washington. Your idea is very silly, that “well we just create a new tax and only pay out what we take in!”, sorry man but that is a fairy tale. If it worked that nice and clean we wouldn’t have $20 trillion in debt right now.
Government cannot even afford to maintain its fighter jets properly, or the interstate highway system, or k-12 education, and you think we can add $783,100,622,400 a year in new spending? Cmon man. Be realistic here.
I’m talking about income taxes, not medicare or social security. And yes, for many people they pay literally NO income taxes. Sure they pay into medicare and social security, but that isn’t income tax. If it was then we would count that as part of our paycheck withholding on our yearly taxes to figure out how much we have already paid into the system, but we don’t do it like that. Social security and mediare taxes are IN ADDITION TO the regular federal and state incomes taxes that are taken out of our paychecks.
And yes, as I said, poor people do still pay certain taxes, like sales taxes. If they earn income then they also pay some social security and medicare taxes too. But any income taxes withheld from their paychecks is just paid right back to them on April 15th.
It’s downright silly to think that taxing something reduces it.
where is the empirical precedent for this? Rephrase: Where does it not work in the opposite way?
Taxing something universally means that the production value decreases so as for profits to be sustained, it never causes accountability to increase. To be taxed sucks, and the human being responds aggressively to reassert his interests. It’s nature, you can’t moralize nature.
If centuries of examples don’t push to the foreground spontaneously, think only of Volkswagen. Carbon taxation caused the once most reliable brand to succumb entirely to corruption in a few years time.
I’m not. You’ve provided some arbitrary minimum that you think a UBI has to be, and you multiplied that by the population. An arbitrary number times a population is an arbitrary number.
Again, the proposal here is to tax carbon in a revenue neutral way. I think a UBI is generally a good idea, and so paying out the net tax revenue from the carbon tax is to my mind an added benefit. But a carbon tax is a good thing even if it weren’t paying out everything it takes in, a carbon tax is an efficient way to encourage people to change their behavior towards cleaner alternatives. Paying out makes it politically palatable.
As for a UBI on its own, as a replacement for our current welfare systems, a recent study from AEI looked at that and found that it’s not nearly so grim as you describe. They find that the net benefit to most people is greater than what people get under the current system (but note that they are replacing Social Security and Medicare, and find that seniors are on average slightly worse off).
Because people think that poverty is a moral failing, rather than a structural one. And they’re basically wrong about that.
There is a fallacy at work, whereby people who aren’t poor assume that anyone who is poor must be poor because they’re mentally or morally unable to make the right choices to lift themselves out of poverty. Part of our sense of the world being just requires that we assume that poverty is largely the fault of the poor, so we assume that giving the poor money will just fuel more extravagant poor decisions. But by and large that’s not the case, a significant part of poverty is structural, due to a lack of opportunity and access. Giving people extra cash lets them make decisions to improve their own lives, and where it’s put into practice it’s been shown to be effective: most spending is to the long-term benefit of the recipients, and not primarily hedonistic.
And when I say that it’s cheap, I mean it’s cheap relative to any other kind of welfare. If you want to give out a net social benefit of $700 billion as a UBI, it costs about $700 billion. If you want to give out $700 billion of vouchers, goods, and services, you need to spend much more money because 1) the value a recipient receives is less than the cost of the voucher, good, or service, and 2) vouchers, goods, and services, and selective awards of aid, all have significant bureaucratic overhead.
For goods where there’s a ready alternative that is only differentiated by costs, taxes will obviously decrease consumption. So, for example, if I can buy electricity produced from burning some fossil fuel or electricity produced from some renewable source, taxing the fossil fuel electricity will tend to make the renewable source electricity more appealing.
For other types of goods, increasing costs doesn’t affect consumption as much. For example, a CBO study found that gasoline cost only weakly affected driving behavior. That makes sense: many trips by car aren’t optional, and people who set their lives up around e.g. driving to work every day, will have trouble changing their lives in response to increase in gas prices. However, the same study notes that increasing gas prices do change what kinds of cars people buy, favoring more fuel efficient cars and thus decreasing gas consumption in the long run. So while many behaviors result in ‘sticky’ levels of consumption, over time peoples’ behaviors do change to imperfect substitutes in response to a change in price.
Finally, it often isn’t important that prices change behavior. For example, if we put cigarette taxes to medical costs, even if they don’t change behavior, they fund a liability imposed on society by the behavior. Since pollution has a widespread negative effect that everyone feels, a carbon tax paid out as a UBI will generally compensate everyone for the negative consequences that result from the consumption of carbon.
Seniors can easily make over $1000 a month on social security. Disabled people on SSI can make $800 a month easily, since it’s supposed to help cover rent. Why don’t you provide some numbers here, you are really underestimating the cost of all this.
My “arbitrary” number of $200 a month was chosen based on an article in UBI from The Economist. It’s not arbitrary and choosing a number as a reasonable example doesn’t somehow invalidate the entire cost analysis. I don’t understand how you could possibly think that.
I would think that you consider $200 a month to be too low, especially if you want to replace SSDI and SSI with UBI. You’re basically taking about giving social security to every person in the country. If you don’t like my numbers then the onus is on you to provide counter numbers as to the total cost. It’s easy to do, since it’s easy to find all the numbers you would need to calculate it out.
So first let’s see how expensive welfare and social security are right now, and how many people benefit at what average benefit per person, then compare replacing that with UBI. I’ll work on those numbers later today. I agree with you that administrative costs are a problem, and doing a simple UBI through say the IRS would be way cheaper, at least in theory. But I can’t see that reduction in bureaucratic overhead offsetting the total cost in a meaningful way.
700 billion would represent a significant percentage taken out of total income for everyone paying into the system. I happen to think taxes are already too high on almost everyone, and yes government is a bit too large and far too inefficient.
And your response to the food stamp issue I raised is wrong. We don’t require food stamps to not be used on alcohol and drugs and non-food items because we assume poor people are morally at fault. We do it because it’s common sense that if you give someone $100 for food they’re not necessarily going to spend it on food, or even for basic needs. Giving out cash instead of focused benefits like food stamps would make the welfare system that much more inefficient, since a lot of people wouldn’t even spend the money on what the money is intended for. Buying a PS4 or an iPhone or some marijuana or Jack Daniels doesn’t help alleviate poverty.
I’ll engage your objections in a minute, but first I must again stress that the general criticisms of the cost of a UBI are inapplicable to the policy proposal in the OP. More complete carbon-tax-to-UBI proposals that have been worked out are in the neighborhood of $50 per month per family of four, rising to less than $400 per month per family. And it’s a fully funded proposal, funded entirely by a new tax on carbon. You’re objecting to an unfunded additional benefit nearly an order of magnitude greater than what’s being proposed. Your objections, whatever their validity, are to a different policy that I haven’t proposed here.
Now, to those objections:
Whether you chose it or the Economist chose it, $200 per month is arbitrary. Here is the Economist noting that a town in Brazil is paying a $3 per month basic income. The Alaska Permanent Fund has paid out less than $1,400 annually on average for the 5 years. Global median income, adjusted for purchasing power, is less than $3,000 per year, roughly the level you proposed. It doesn’t seem a given that a UBI must give out more money that half the population of the earth earns.
But on the higher end, the AEI study, which looked at eliminating almost all welfare programs and base-narrowing parts of the tax code (e.g. tax breaks for mortgage interest payments), estimated a payment of about $13,700 per year for adults (they would pay half that to children; I’m not sure that’s my preferred way to do things, but it is a reasonable approach). That’s much higher than your proposal, but it’s funded by eliminating $2.54 trillion in already existing welfare spending, and raising taxes (by eliminating targeted tax breaks) by $649 billion. As you point out, this significant spending, but the vast majority of it is already funded, and the additional taxes fall significantly more heavily on the wealthiest (those earning over $1 million per year).
And it doesn’t include additional spending already in place for employer-funded health insurance, which presumably would also be cut. Various base-narrowing tax expenditures that benefit corporations could also be cut. We could cut additional government programs that are at least partially justified as worker benefit programs. For example, farm subsidies would be less necessary, since individuals are given cash to better afford the price of food, and vulnerable farmers have an additional safety net in the UBI.
But I still think their payout is much too high. Again, $3,000 per year is the global median income, a UBI at that level already means that every citizen in the US earns more than half the population of the earth. There’s this weird notion that a UBI has to be a living wage, and there’s no reason to take that position. $2 a day (roughly $700 per year) allows a person to scrape by in squalor (I know from experience that a can of sardines and roll is less that $2 in a city with an extremely high cost of living relative to the national average, and that’s enough nutrients to prevent starvation). And that could be had in exchange for many fewer already existing welfare programs.
A more politically feasible way to implement a UBI would be introduce it at a very low level, and gradually scale back welfare programs and transfer the spending into the UBI. Over time, the UBI could be grown as dependence on welfare programs decreases, and as cash is moved into poor communities, creating small but real opportunities for their residents ($2 dollars a day per person adds almost a million dollars of additional spending per day to the Flint, Michigan metro area).
To vouchers (like food stamps): first, do we agree that a voucher is worth less than its face value? So that by providing people with food vouchers, we’re immediately eliminating a significant amount of the value of the money we’re spending?
To avoid this, and still try to salvage a limitation on irresponsible spending, we could try to create a magic voucher that individuals could spend on anything responsible and not on anything irresponsible. But that line is hard to evaluate. Let’s say a recipient wants to host a barbecue and buy beer for her guests, is that a responsible or irresponsible use (keeping in mind that happy hours are among the most common networking events that create valuable interpersonal connections and social spillover)?
Better is to look at the size of the actual problem. Yes, some people will spend cash foolishly and self-destructively. But he evidence doesn’t support the notion that most will, and indeed, the sources I provided showed quite the opposite, that spending on vices stayed level or went down with the introduction of a basic income. The evidence we have from UBI-like programs does not support the concern that a significant percent of UBI receipts would go to alcohol, drugs, or other vices. People know what they need, they know it better than bureaucrats trying to tailor vouchers to what they think recipients need. Cash is more valuable and benefits people more, and abuse is just not that big a concern. The limitations exists, e.g. food stamps instead of cash, are based not in empirical evidence, but in politics and bias.
The general consensus is that men require a minimum of 1800 calories per day and women require a minimum of 1200 calories per day - less than that and your body goes into starvation and ultimately shutdown mode.
A calorie counter I am not, and I love me some sardines, so chalk that up to wishful thinking . But several sources provide plenty of options for getting a days’ worth of calories for $2 or less, see for example here (and to clarify, I’m not suggesting eating lard, but rather the real foods listed, like peanut butter, rice, potatoes, milk, beans, pasta, etc.).
Let’s say that you can get enough calories to survive on $2 per day. That leaves $0 for rent, heat, electricity. Anyone who suggests that $700 is a “basic income” or a “safety net” in the USA, is going to be ridiculed for being out of touch with reality. Frankly, it’s an insulting amount.
As I said above, a UBI doesn’t need to be a living wage. It’s not intended to replace all other sources of income or allow people to retire at 18.
The Gallup report I linked to earlier found that median income in the US is roughly $15,480, so for half the population in the US, $2 a day ($730 a year) represents a greater than 4.7% raise. You might be insulted, but for many, $2 a day is a meaningful increase in earnings, and we should expect it to significantly impact their lives.
This is weird definition of income, and I disagree, but you’re making a distinction without a difference. It’s a universal, unconditional payment. Call it whatever you want.
It can be considered an adequate replacement for some welfare payments, and it would eliminate some government bureaucracy and expense.
The concept of UBI has some associated goals and assumptions. If the government gave everyone $1 per year, would it be UBI?
Funny given your OP, in which you propose that people don’t even get cash until the government approves. If the “money” goes into an HSA, then obviously it’s not an unconditional payment.
Well, it would create another bureaucracy which administers the UBI. But I will give you the benefit of the doubt and say that some unknown amount of welfare expense might be reduced.
Is a grain of sand a heap? I don’t think what we call it is an interesting or important question. I would not advocate for $1 a year payment, whatever it’s called.
Fair point. I still think it is ultimately universal and unconditional, because the money ultimately either gets spent on healthcare costs that the individual incurs, or converts to cash. Since it does pay out as cash eventually, and it’s in an interest-bearing account in the meantime, the benefit is similar, and the real value is probably roughly equal over time. I do agree that it’s not a ‘pure’ cash payout, and the period in which it’s in the HSA limits the benefits because, as you rightly note, it’s note cash. For practical purposes, though, after whatever holding period or minimum is reached, additional payments are effectively cash.
Valuation seems a bit complicated. On the one hand, money that’s not yet available to cash is worth less than cash in hand. But since an HSA can be interest-bearing, this difference may be offset, possibly to zero (in an efficient market, it should be break-even). Add to that the money currently has value as a voucher for healthcare, and there may be additional offset, although maintaining that liquidity will limit the kinds of investments that can be made with HSA funds, and so limit the potential return. I’m tempted to say that the value is roughly cash equivalent in an efficient market, and only a little less than equivalent in the real world. They are effectively vouchers that turn into cash after a certain period, and they gain interest in the interval.
This too is a fair point. This is a big part of why I think a $1 per person per year UBI wouldn’t be worthwhile. The UBI does have an upfront cost associated with developing and implementing the agency that handles payments. For a normal UBI, it’s been proposed to implement the UBI as a refundable tax credit, in which case the IRS can handle it and the additional overhead is low. But here, where the money is paid into special accounts, up-front costs would be larger, and the payout should be high enough to justify them.
The more complete proposal I mentioned earlier projects an upfront cost of about 7.5%, falling over time (as carbon taxes increase) to about 1%, and a roughly fixed administrative cost in the range of $5-6 billion (and I believe this is for a new, IRS-like administrative body). For a $700 a year program, that’s about 2% overhead. Estimates for SNAP from 2012 are in the range of 10% overhead, and that may not include e.g. pensions for government employees who oversee the program.
I checked out the link. Nowhere did I see an estimate of total revenue produced by the carbon tax, nor did I see an estimate of total cost to consumers in higher prices. What would be the effect of these taxes on gasoline prices? Currently a 31 cents per gallon tax on gasoline at the federal level raised $35 billion dollars in 2014. If you want to jump from this to $100 billion you’re going to need to about triple the per gallon tax, namely you go from 31 cents to about $1 per gallon (assuming the new taxes do not impact demand too much, thus driving down total revenue produced by the tax, which is, ironically, also part of the goal of these taxes, namely to reduce gasoline use). If you want to get to $200 billion in revenue you need about $2 per gallon of taxes, up from currently 31 cents. So every consumer will be paying not $3 a gallon but around $5 a gallon. And again this isn’t factoring in demand and supply concerns. Gas prices are bound to go up naturally soon anyway because the current state of overproduction of crude oil cannot last forever.
So $50 per month for a family of four, do you seriously think that does anything to alleviate poverty? How can you possibly consider around $12 per person a month to make any fucking dent in poverty? Why don’t you go find a poor person and tell them you’re going to alleviate their poverty by giving them $12 a month, and see how they laugh at you.
But yeah, at $400 a month for a family of four, then maybe we’re starting to see some real impact. In which case, we are at $100 per person, still not very much, around half of my (The Economist’s) initial UBI estimate. Thus we can take $100 per month x 12 months x 326,291,926 people = $391,550,311,200 per year in 2035 or whenever we end up reaching the $400 per family of four payout rate.
This is just basic math. If you have 326,291,926 people and each gets $X a month, you can figure out the total cost for yourself. This is just the hard reality of the numbers. In no way can you claim that this carbon tax and UBI scheme is not incredibly expensive. Even at $12.50 a month per person (your initial rate) the total cost is $12.50 a month x 12 months x 326,291,926 people = $48,943,788,900 a year. That is still 48 billion dollars a year that you are draining out of the economy in the form of higher taxes on fuel. If we use this number (and again, this is pretty stupid, since $12.50 a month doesn’t make one bit of difference to anyone) we are essentially doubling the current federal taxes on a gallon of gasoline, going from 31 cents to 62 cents a gallon.
So your proposal is to double the federal gasoline tax in order to give everyone $12.50 a month in UBI. I want to point out how silly this all is. You want to make a reasonable difference in people’s lives, you’re going to need to increase that by about 10x, at which point gas becomes unaffordable.
Now I want to address the philosophical concerns. What is income? You get paid income because you did work, namely because you produced value and sold that value. A worker produces value for his employer, and gives that value immediately to the employer; the employer in return pays the worker a wage or salary. This is what it means to work, to earn income. Unearned income is when someone gives you something without you needing to do anything for it. Why do we have welfare? Because we recognize that sometimes people need more money than they can earn for themselves, so we help them out at public cost (yours and my tax dollars, plus more federal debt, which is just future tax dollars). If we have UBI sufficient to make a difference in people’s lives, then we are essentially ending the relationship between income and work; anyone can do no work and still earn income. Does this make sense to you? If you want to claim that the income through UBI will not be enough to make someone not need to work, then you are basically saying that UBI will not be a replacement for welfare and social security. In which case, why would we even do it? It does nothing to solve poverty.
The way to solve poverty is to help people be productive. Give them job skills, job training, provide stable housing, and help them get a job. This should be the way that any money is used to alleviate poverty. If you pay someone to sit around doing nothing, then they are probably going to keep doing that. This is basic common sense.
You’re deliberately comparing apples and oranges here. You can’t compare a cost of living or an income from the USA and Brazil, these are two entirely different countries and economies. What half the population of earth earns isn’t comparable to conditions in the modern western world, where we actually have some semblance of civilization and an advanced, industrial and free economy. If you want the rest of the world to catch up to the west, then you should be advocating for the rest of the world to start emulating western economies, societies, and human rights.
Also, you simply dodged the issue. The $200 a month isn’t arbitrary, as you keep claiming. It is a number used as an estimate. This number is included in your own link that goes from $50 to $400 a month. Are your numbers arbitrary too? I don’t think so, you need to state a value and posit according to that value. I am saying that $50 a month is laughably insignificant, and you do need to get to around $100 a person ($400 per family of four) to start making any minimal impact on people’s lives. Even at double that, $200 a month per person, as I already spelled out here you are only giving them $50 a week which is less than $8 a meal per day. Sure, it has some small impact, but are you really addressing poverty? I don’t think so.
Yes, and there is a reason for this. Life is also a hell of a lot more expensive in the US than it is in the third world. Someone in the third world may survive on $2 a day but you sure as hell can’t do that in the USA. You are only counting food, which isn’t even possible to live on with $2 a day anyway, but even if it were that doesn’t factor in shelter, clothes, medical, heat, transportation, or anything else. If you want to claim it is possible for someone in the USA to live on $60 a month in total income, I would say you are completely crazy
… yeah, no.
Anyway, this is getting tedious. You continue to refuse to provide actual numbers, so I keep having to come up with the numbers for you, which you keep rejecting. Why don’t you just tell me exactly how much UBI will cost in how you want to see it, and precisely from where all that money comes (does it all come from gas taxes?)
Also, gas taxes are highly regressive. They affect the poor way more than the rich. Are you ok with that? You want $5 a gallon of gas so everyone can get a little $100 a month from the IRS? Really? How will that affect the poor?
To #1, I disagree that income has anything to do with work. Many people get money unrelated to work: allowance, inheritance, lotteries and prizes, lawsuits and settlements and insurance payments, residuals from intellectual property, investment returns, etc. I understand the impetus to connect cash inflow to work, but the reality is that earnings are already significantly divorced from work. In particular, people who are wealthy generally have significantly more unearned cash inflows than those who are poor. So a UBI wouldn’t be creating an unearned income where none exists, it would ensuring that everyone gets some unearned income, instead of just those whose families and communities can afford it.
To #2, I basically agree with you as to the motivation for welfare. We recognize that at least some types of poverty are unrelated to desert. Where we may disagree is that I think more poverty is structural, i.e. that not only is it unrelated to desert, but it’s unrelated to individual characteristics (like disability), and is instead a result of the social and economic networks to which they are connected (and importantly, the parts of society to which they aren’t and can’t be connected). Related to this, I don’t think the UBI needs to be as big in order to make meaningful changes in the long term. If welfare is mostly about completely supporting those who are unable to support themselves due to their personal, internal, innocent failures or inability, then you’re right that a UBI that replaces welfare must be a living wage. If welfare is instead mostly about correcting for structural problems that leave average-potential individuals without the access or connections that would allow them to support themselves, then a much lower UBI will make a meaningful difference. In the latter case, it’s not just about how much money is given to the individual, but about how much money is available in a person’s community, in a person’s family, in a person’s network. Increasing the income at every node, even relatively slightly, should have a significant effect on the network. The goal isn’t to fully support most welfare recipients, but to affect the structural barriers to them supporting themselves.
And, unlike the AEI study, I wouldn’t advocate for eliminating all welfare programs and replacing them with a UBI. Welfare programs for the mentally and physically disabled, in particular, would probably still be necessary. But there, where the payout is as much as 50x what the UBI is paying out, the administrative overhead is likely justified.
I hope this helps to clarify our disagreement, and let me know if I’ve misinterpreted your position or reasons.
A few other quick points that I think are worth responding to:
I agree that this information is a little hidden, but this is from their administrative costs calculation page: “Assuming a $15/metric ton fee in Year 1 and a $10 increase each year thereafter, the carbon fee total grows from $79 billion in Year 1 to $544 billion in Year 20.”
The $3,000 figure is already adjusted for cost of living, so that difference should already be factored in. From the press release: “Estimates of household income are expressed in international dollars, created using the World Bank’s individual consumption PPP conversion factor, making income estimates comparable across all 131 countries.”
Because I don’t think the UBI should be a fixed value or come from a specific source. I think implementing a UBI will make many welfare programs unnecessary, and in those cases the other programs should be cut. And there are a lot of unrelated government programs that I would be happy to cut if we think that taxation is too high in general. But I think that it’s worthwhile for the government to levy taxes for the purpose of paying everyone a UBI, that a UBI will help to make a better society and it’s a sound policy. If we were designing a government from scratch, I’d suggest some level of UBI. What tradeoffs we make in practice are important, but they’re a bit besides the point of whether the policy is generally valuable.
And I’m not sure what the optimal value is for the UBI, but it probably isn’t a fixed rate. One of UBI’s strengths is that it scales well as the world changes. A UBI that makes sense or would be affordable now may be too little in a few years, as automation eliminates the possibility of employing larger and larger swaths of the human population, and a living or nearly-living UBI actually becomes necessary.
This isn’t true where the revenue that comes in from the carbon tax is paid out equally. Carbon use is likely to be somewhat correlated with wealth, so that the wealthy tend to get back less from the UBI than they pay in, and the poor are likely to get back more. The cost of goods will indeed increase somewhat, but the difference between carbon expenditures and UBI payouts is likely to be enough to more than compensate the very poor.
Carleas, the system you proposed omits entirely the idea that taxation can alter temperatures. In fact you straight up deny that it can, saying that whereas conditions wont improve, people can be compensated for that. Yes, after having paid for the dispensation themselves.
Case closed then - the Paris Climate Deal has literally nothing to do with climate change, and everything and only with capturing private wealth into a government system, that promises to give it away again. And we know so well what government promises about government generosity are worth.
Trump just preferred to not make promises but straight up save the US $3.000.000.000.000,-. I suppose there are ways in which one can pretend to get angry over this. There are always ways to pretend.
First, climate change isn’t just about temperature change. Indeed, there’s reason to think that climate change will trigger an ice age by disrupting the currents that move warm air and water from the equator towards the poles. But climate change is more about large scale changes to the planetary system, that may result in flooding and other physical destruction, as well as mass die-offs of animals and plants that humans value.
Second, if carbon production affects climate change, and taxation affects carbon production, then taxation affects climate change.
. But several sources provide plenty of options for getting a days’ worth of calories for $2 or less, see for example 