Those graphs depict “straight line”, uneventful futures. If for example, the USA economy crumbles as intended, those lines will be disturbed.
Economic aspects correlate with demographic aspects.
Do you know how trustworthy the people of the so-called “PEW Research Center” and their statements are? They predict that the fertility rates and the age distribution of the religious groups (incl. the global average) will develop as follows:
Mulims: 3.1 (2010) => 2.3 (2050), thus —0.8;
Christians: 2.7 (2010) => 2.3 (2050), thus —0.3;
Global average: 2.5 (2010) => 2.1 (2050), thus —0.4;
Hindus: 2.4 (2010) => 1.8 (2050), thus —0.6;
Jews: 2.3 (2010) => 2.1 (2050), thus —0.2;
Folk Religions: 1.8 (2010) => 2.0 (2050), thus +0.2;
Unaffiliated: 1,7 (2010) => 1.9 (2050), thus +0.2;
Other Religions: 1,7 (2010) => 1.8 (2050), thus +0.1;
Buddhists: 1,6 (2010) => 1.7 (2050), thus +0.1.
Source: pewforum.org/2015/04/02/main … on-growth/ .
Of course there’s still that part about actually demonstrating the existence of whatever God does come out on top in 2050.
I know, I know: that’s not the point of this thread. Sorry. It just seems important to some to bring that up.
So, by all means, carry on. [-o<
[size=140]“Unaffiliated”.[/size]
During the next few decades, the number of religiously unaffiliated people around the world is projected to grow modestly, rising from about 1.1 billion in 2010 to a peak of more than 1.2 billion in 2040 and then dropping back slightly.42 Over the same 40-year period, however, the overall global population is expected to increase at a much faster pace. As a result, the percentage of the world’s population that is unaffiliated is expected to drop, from 16% of the world’s total population in 2010 to 13% in 2050.
Change in the 10 countries with the largest unaffiliated populations.
Projected Population Change in Countries With Largest Unaffiliated Populations in 2010All 10 countries on this list are expected to see their overall populations decline as a share of the world’s population. Collectively, these countries held 33% of the world’s population in 2010. By 2050, their share of the global population is expected to decline to 25%. China alone is expected to shift from having nearly 20% of the world’s population in 2010 to 14% in 2050.
In six of these countries (Japan, the United States, Vietnam, Germany, France and the United Kingdom), the share of the population that is unaffiliated is expected to increase in the coming decades. But the potential growth of the unaffiliated is constrained by the fact that these are all countries with overall populations that are shrinking as a share of the world’s people.
The religiously unaffiliated are heavily concentrated in relatively few countries. As of 2010, about 86% lived in the 10 countries with the largest unaffiliated populations. Consequently, the demographic trajectory of these countries will help shape the projected size of the global unaffiliated population in the decades to come.
In 2010, more than six-in-ten (62%) of the world’s religiously unaffiliated people lived in China. The next largest religiously unaffiliated populations were in Japan (6% of the global total), the United States (5%), Vietnam (2%) and Russia (2%).
In 2050, China is expected to remain home to a majority (54%) of the world’s unaffiliated population. The United States is expected to have the world’s second-largest unaffiliated population (8%), surpassing Japan (6%).
Age structure an religious switching.
Age Distribution, 2010Globally, the religiously unaffiliated population was older (median age of 34) than the overall population (median age of 28) as of 2010. In Asia and the Pacific, where most of the unaffiliated live, the median age of the unaffiliated (35) was six years higher than the regional median (29). While sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the youngest median age of religiously unaffiliated people (20), the region’s overall median age is even younger (18).
Age Distribution of Unaffiliated by Region, 2010In other regions, the unaffiliated tend to be younger than the general population. In North America, the median age of the unaffiliated (30) is seven years younger than the regional median (37). In Europe, the median age of the unaffiliated (37) is three years below the overall median (40). And in Latin America and the Caribbean, the median age of the unaffiliated (26) is one year younger than the regional median (27).
The people of the so-called “PEW Research Center” do not stop their projections at the year 2050:
Beyond the Year 2050.
Long-Term Projections of Christian and Muslim Shares of World’s PopulationThis report describes how the global religious landscape would change if current demographic trends continue. With each passing year, however, there is a chance that unforeseen events – war, famine, disease, technological innovation, political upheaval, etc. – will alter the size of one religious group or another. Owing to the difficulty of peering more than a few decades into the future, the projections stop at 2050.
Readers may wonder, though, what would happen to the population trajectories highlighted in this report if they were projected into the second half of this century. Given the rapid projected increase from 2010 to 2050 in the Muslim share of the world’s population, would Muslims eventually outnumber Christians? And, if so, when?
The answer depends on continuation of the trends described in Chapter 1. If the main projection model is extended beyond 2050, the Muslim share of the world’s population would equal the Christian share, at roughly 32% each, around 2070. After that, the number of Muslims would exceed the number of Christians, but both religious groups would grow, roughly in tandem, as shown in the graph above. By the year 2100, about 1% more of the world’s population would be Muslim (35%) than Christian (34%).
The projected growth of Muslims and Christians would be driven largely by the continued expansion of Africa’s population. Due to the heavy concentration of Christians and Muslims in this high-fertility region, both groups would increase as a percentage of the global population. Combined, the world’s two largest religious groups would make up more than two-thirds of the global population in 2100 (69%), up from 61% in 2050 and 55% in 2010.
It bears repeating, however, that many factors could alter these trajectories. For example, if a large share of China’s population were to switch to Christianity (as discussed in this sidebar), that shift alone could bolster Christianity’s current position as the world’s most populous religion. Or if disaffiliation were to become common in countries with large Muslim populations – as it is now in some countries with large Christian populations – that trend could slow or reverse the increase in Muslim numbers.
The title of the said text of the PEW Research Center is: “The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050”. Its subtitle is: “Why Muslims Are Rising Fastest and the Unaffiliated Are Shrinking as a Share of the World’s Population”. If until 2050 the Muslims will rise fastest and the Unaffiliated shrink as a share of the world population, then we will probably not get a syncretistic religion before 2050 but war before 2050, because additionally the Christians as a share of the world population will neither rise nor shrink (2010: 31.4% ; 2050: 31.4%), the Jews as a share of the world population will neither rise nor shrink (2010: 0.2% ; 2050: 0.2%), the Hindus as a share of the world population will shrink (2010: 15.0% ; 2050: 14.9%), the Other Religions as a share of the world population will shrink (2010: 0.8% ; 2050: 0.7%), the Folk Religions as a share of the world population will shrink (2010: 5.9% ; 2050: 4.8%), the Buddhists as a share of the world population will shrink (2010: 7.1% ; 2050: 5.2%), and - as I already said - the Unaffiliated as a share of the world population will shrink (2010: 16.4%; 2050: 13.2%). So merely the Muslims will rise both absolutely (2010: 1.6 billions; 2050: 2.76 billions) and relatively, thus as a share of the world population (2010: 23.2; 2050: 29.7). That will not necessarily but probably lead to war, namely to more war than we already have.
The more darkly manipulated the world becomes, the more Islam will run it. Islam represents the more rigid force, blocking some of the more critical causes of entropy, while not being ashamed of creating entropy outside itself, like Judaism.
Most religions are selfish (not merely self-interested). Christianity has the disadvantage of being not merely selfish, the easier route.
I think that we will get a syncretistic religion as we conceive of religions today. However, by the time we get this syncretistic religion, I’m pretty sure that what it means to be a syncretistic religion will have changed to something that is more than a congregation of today’s religions. Let’s say that in 500 years christianity, buddhism, animism, hinduism, taoism, zoroastrianism, strong/weak atheism, etc… will have been reconciled. Perhaps something new will exist then - that we will have to intend to reconcile with this convergence.
What if humans agree to seperate and peacefully go down seperate paths becoming truly different breeds? Why must humans be the same to have peace?
What if humans agree to seperate and peacefully go down seperate paths becoming truly different breeds?
I think that seperate paths are not possible now and will not be possible in the near future. This current impossibility is a symptom of our times.
Why must humans be the same to have peace?
Because no real ruler wants then to have peace. Humans can never be the same, so the real rulers and their functionaries are always saying “humans must be the same to have peace”, because the real rulers know that that is impossible. It has always to do with the control of the 99%.
A part of the effort to conform all of Mankind into one big happy family, a mono-particle, involves removing all symbols of individual national, civic, and personal identity: one money, one religion, one language, one ontology, one spirit, and one mind. It is imagined as a single positive monoparticle floating in space. Such will require either a mechanized, blind servitude (constituting the only single life on the planet) or a state of Hell on Earth for all inhabitants. To avoid the Hell on Earth scenario, androids will be required, not merely preferred. The definition of “human” (the hue of Man) must become the same as that of “Android”.
Alternately, rather than having a mono-particle, a poly-particle can be formed wherein there are slightly distinguishable nations that are largely interdependent. Each nation would be constructive, but with different emphasis on purpose and function, much like the organs of a body. This arrangement would constitute the common nucleus of an atom.
But what happens with you get a single positive particle floating in space? A negative particle WILL find it. And if that positive particle is a large poly-particle, it quite naturally breaks apart (becomes radioactive), forming a multitude of separate positive particles with strong aversion to each other - back to where the world started, multi-nationalism or even tribalism.
If the goal is not to be “positive” (in this case “constructive” or “advancing”), the entire world of Man could become neutral, very busily accomplishing nothing at all, having as much negative, “deconstruction”, within as positive, “construction or advancement”. In that case, an additional negative influence would not be attracted to it. But then again, nothing would ever be accomplished or accomplish-able by it either.
There are only two possible states for such a particle.
The first being a chaos of mindless conflicting activity = “Hell on Earth”. The second being a harmony of distinguishable positive and negative portions; nations or organizations. In such a case, the organizations must (and will) always remain very distant yet ever hovering around each other, an “atom floating in space”. The larger portion would be like a positive, constructive nucleus and the others would be independent “terrorist organizations”. And whatever good was accomplished by the nucleus of the world, would be destroyed by the necessary orbiting terrorist organizations. The terrorist organizations would be required and thus manufactured if not naturally formed and maintained.
This atomic structure for Mankind would never know true peace and still be composed of merely a few actual life forms, the positive particle(s) and negative(s). Within each particle, either Hell or absolute servitude would still reign. And if invaded from outside, would not be able to accomplish anything in any intelligent or conscious manner.
In all of these case, the Man being manufactured, although filled with great knowledge, would not be a conscious entity. Mankind, as a whole, would be a scrambling, buzzing, mindless particle as seen from the outside.
Such simple minded overall structures for Mankind prevents any hope for Man to be a living conscious and coherent creature from the purview of the universe or visiting life forms. For Mankind as a whole to function as perhaps a living coherent and intelligent creature, a much more complex structure of very many separate components (organizations) must be arranged, more like a DNA molecule and its housing cell multiplied millions of times and networked together, independent, but cooperative.
And that type of order is what I have been referring to as “Social Anentropic Molecularisation” formed of largely independent anentropic “families”, “small groups”, or “small corporations” networked together by proximity and each taking care of itself for sake of itself. Not requiring a single religion, single mind, single money, single language, single ontology, or single spirit. Each family constitutes a particle, some positive, some negative, of varied colors and types and in harmony merely because of the one thing common among them - an understanding of how to be an anentropic corporal life.
The state of Heaven on Earth, is a state wherein millions of mostly independent lives are making their own choices in accord with their own situational needs, not in servitude of an artificial higher design, not in fear of death or torment, not in blind faith of some higher purpose, but rather in consequential service to an aberrant higher order, never designed, merely formed by the needs of reality - the very definition of a living creature.
The societies with the lowest fertility are not the wealthiest societies:
They know full well how to rewrite history and blame shift anything onto who or whatever.
Yes. Oh, yes.
Ultimate Philosophy 1001:What goes away?
All of the old, non-updated religions. Although most update so as to become indistinguishable from each other (“One World Religion”).
This “One World Religion” can also be called a “synctretistic religion”.
This “One World Religion” can also be called a “synctretistic religion”.
Is this “One World Religion” … this “Synctretistic Religion” the same as Chardin’s “Omega Point” ?
Bob:I’m not sure that it is what we need, and therefore I would say no.
What we need is a reconciliation to the understanding that all human beings have a world view, and cultures promote a world view which best helps them as a society…
Simple - first remove all that causes discord and conflict; get rid of all religion and look at the earth, not the world’s of our own creation.
Bingo. Spirituality is the best way.
What if humans agree to seperate and peacefully go down seperate paths becoming truly different breeds? Why must humans be the same to have peace?
I think that you would love SAM Coops.
Lev Muishkin: Bob:I’m not sure that it is what we need, and therefore I would say no.
What we need is a reconciliation to the understanding that all human beings have a world view, and cultures promote a world view which best helps them as a society…
Simple - first remove all that causes discord and conflict; get rid of all religion and look at the earth, not the world’s of our own creation.
Bingo. Spirituality is the best way.
Actually, it was kind of dumb. That was like saying “First cure all diseases spread by women, then….”
The societies with the lowest fertility are not the wealthiest societies:
That highest fertility rate country is Niger (approximately 7 children every per woman). The USA has been very actively importing vast numbers of their people into the USA, giving them homes and jobs (can’t image why ).
Actually, it was kind of dumb. That was like saying “First cure all diseases spread by women, then….”
James … I find your post a bit confusing … not the cure all the diseases spread by woman part …
Artimus posted … “Bingo. Spirituality is the best way.” in response to a post from Lev Muishkin … “Simple - first remove all that causes discord and conflict; get rid of all religion and look at the earth, not the world’s of our own creation.”
I see Artimus’s post a bit differently. I don’t see some new flavour of spirituality replacing all religions or superseding them.
I see it more in line with the Chinese proverb … something to the effect … many paths are available to climb the mountain but the view from the top remains constant.
Perhaps some day all religions will meet each other on the “top of the mountain” and discover …“the view is the same” … with a subsequent embracing of all religions … all paths up the mountain … maybe!
More emerging thoughts …
Some religions have gone the way of the dodo bird on there climb up the mountain … more may meet the same fate … those that make it to the top will see the same view … maybe.
James … I find your post a bit confusing
That’s okay. I find all of yours that way.
Lev Muishkin:Simple - first remove all that causes discord and conflict; get rid of all religion …
You don’t see the similarity in that and what I said:
That was like saying “First cure all diseases spread by women, then…”
Not only is it a ridiculous “first step”, but also a direct presumption of guilt.
many paths are available to climb the mountain but the view from the top remains constant.
Perhaps some day all religions will meet each other on the “top of the mountain” and discover …“the view is the same” … with a subsequent embracing of all religions … all paths up the mountain … maybe!
But then you find that they were on the wrong mountain.