My latest analysis of the correct solution is that it relies on the assumption that “deducing based on what is known for sure is most logical, when it is only knowing something (one’s own eye colour) for sure that will make a difference”.
Given only two possibilities (to each blue) that there are either 100 or 99 blues (which is exhaustively equivalent to knowing what their own eye colour is), they would therefore start deducing based on the possibility that contains only that which they can initially know for sure: the 99 blues they definitely can see.
For example:
Each of the 100 blues does not see 100 blues. They DO know for sure that they definitely see 99, so they start their deduction based on this rather than anything that contains a variable that could go either way. Importantly, they begin their deductions from the point of view of any blue of the 99 they see - knowing only what any of the 99 would know.
Any of the 100 blues in turn knows for sure that 99 blue-eyed islanders would know for sure that they would see 98 blue-eyed islanders. Deducing ONLY based on what these 98 would see for sure, knowing the only thing that any of these 98 would only know for sure, the series of deductions continues to the point that 1 blue-eyed islander would know for sure that he sees ZERO blue-eyed islanders, based ONLY on what this 1 blue-eyed islander would know for sure, based ONLY on an examination by any of the 100 blues of what can be known FOR SURE.
At this point, the ONLY other thing that can be known for sure (the Guru’s words) CHANGES the only sure knowledge that can be obtained without the Guru’s words, to “1 blue-eyed islander would know for sure that there is ONE blue-eyed islander (whom they cannot see)”. The only islander whose eyes he would not be able to see is his own, therefore he has blue eyes.
And then the rest:
(He can now know for sure that IF there were no other blue-eyed islanders, he would leave on the ferry the next midnight. He can know for sure that IF there was only 1 blue-eyed islander who he could see that did not leave on the ferry the next midnight, that blue-eyed islander that he could see sees another blue-eyed islander, who could only be himself, so they both leave on the ferry on the 2nd midnight. If there were 2 that he could see, they would act in the previously described way if there were in fact only 2 blue-eyed islanders, and if they do not, that leaves the only possibility that hey each see he himself who therefore has blue-eyes, and they all leave on the 3rd midnight. This continues all the way up to what is ACTUALLY the critical juncture: whether 99 leave on the 99th midnight, and if not then 100 leave on the 100th midnight.)
That is all the blues. The browns and the 1 green cannot do the same as they can only know for sure the same and only definite knowledge that the blues could use aside from the Guru’s words. The Guru’s words do not change what 1 brown or green would definitely and only know for sure about the amount of browns and greens that they would definitely see. Accordingly, they cannot build the deduction back up like the blues needed to be able to do in order to leave. Additionally, the fact that all the blues left tells the browns and the green nothing new about their own eye colour, as it would remain a possibility to each and everyone of them that the could have, e.g. red eyes.
I have intentionally emphasised:
(a) the only assumption that is being relied upon in order for this series of deductions to unfold,
(b) that there are no other assumptions that can be made from certain knowledge,
(c) that each deduction in the series operates ONLY from the knowledge that the number of blues in question would know (no transfer of knowledge out of context, such as “what 100 would know” being transferred to “what any less than 100 would know (critically to what 1 would know)”.
As such, this is the ONLY solution.
All other proposed solutions are abusing at least one of the above.
As far as I know, this clears up every single grievance in the entire thread, though I can illogically deduce that this will not end the discussion - but that is not my fault. Carleas, FJ and I can now all step out and take a breather. Everyone else, study it well and swallow your pride.