Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Discussion of the recent unfolding of history.

Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Serendipper » Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:19 am

Zero_Sum wrote:Serendipper, where are you at man? Get in this discussion!

Sorry, got a phone call :oops:
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Zero_Sum » Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:22 am

Query: If there isn't a hard market correction in the United States or the western sphere of influence internally I suspect that joint international trade by both China and Russia will undermine the dollar abroad in international markets externally. Either way there will be a hard correction on the United States economy whether it is from internal unsustainable components or external ones from foreign powers like Russia or China overtime. To this I will be watching both segments very closely.
"The condition of man... is a condition of war of everyone against everyone."

"I put for the general inclination of all mankind, a perpetual and restless desire of power after power, that ceaseth only in death."

-Thomas Hobbes-


"History is a set of lies agreed upon." - Napoleon Bonaparte

“To judge from the notions expounded by theologians, one must conclude that God created most men simply with a view to crowding hell.”― Marquis de Sade

“Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor.”
― Robert A. Heinlein


"Republicans are red and democrats are blue, neither political party gives a flying fuck about you." - Unknown Origin

“In the architecture of their life some may display Potemkin happiness in view of hiding the dark features of their fair weather relationship, preferring to set up a window dressing of fake satisfaction rather than being rejected as emotional outcasts." Erik Pevernagie
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Zero_Sum » Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:22 am

Serendipper wrote:
Zero_Sum wrote:Serendipper, where are you at man? Get in this discussion!

Sorry, got a phone call :oops:


No worries. :wink:
"The condition of man... is a condition of war of everyone against everyone."

"I put for the general inclination of all mankind, a perpetual and restless desire of power after power, that ceaseth only in death."

-Thomas Hobbes-


"History is a set of lies agreed upon." - Napoleon Bonaparte

“To judge from the notions expounded by theologians, one must conclude that God created most men simply with a view to crowding hell.”― Marquis de Sade

“Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor.”
― Robert A. Heinlein


"Republicans are red and democrats are blue, neither political party gives a flying fuck about you." - Unknown Origin

“In the architecture of their life some may display Potemkin happiness in view of hiding the dark features of their fair weather relationship, preferring to set up a window dressing of fake satisfaction rather than being rejected as emotional outcasts." Erik Pevernagie
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Serendipper » Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:44 am

Zero_Sum wrote:So, understanding the basics of currency trading starting out with say $100.00 is it very difficult understanding daily market fluctuations or rotations doubling your money overtime?

$100 is not enough, that's the minimum before a margin call is issued to sell you out. This is why you need to play with the demo account to get a feel for how it works.

https://www.fxcm.com/uk/forex-trading-demo/ Just fill in bs info and download the demo. The base currency is pounds, but you can pretend it's dollars.

This is where you'd actually have your account and the software sucks in my opinion https://www.forex.com/en-us/

FXCM is lightyears better.

I'm not sure the minimum amount to open an account, but realistically you'd need at least $200 to keep that position on if it went somewhat against you. I mean, what's your plan? Do you intend to hold it through hell and high water or are you going to cry uncle at a certain loss? When do you admit you're wrong?
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Serendipper » Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:54 am

Zero_Sum wrote:I nowhere near have enough money for stocks, bonds, and all those other things. For me all of that is like a giant international casino where you better have a lot of money when taking losses.

I think currency trading is my best bet at the moment for me to get my feet wet with the little bit of money that I have. Minimal risk, exposure, and loss is my thing.


You need a lot of money to hold your position. You need dry powder. The #1 thing is risk management! Warren Buffett said when the tide goes out you see who is swimming naked.

Like right now if you, say, thought the stock market were going higher, you'd take a small position in hopes of that, but what if it goes down instead? What do you do? Sell at the bottom where it starts to go back up? Or buy more and have the downtrend continue lower? Sometimes it seems that whatever you do, the market will do the opposite. It can make you think someone is watching you lol... and they are... those computers - algos - know what positions you have and probably how far it would need to move to break you. There's a LOT of money in forex and I guarantee there is shenanigans. As Oliver Velez puts it, "It's the most competitive sport on the planet with the most money at stake, so don't think you're going to waltz in and take food from their plates."

Anyway, you need a plan of action. The big guys take the opposite side of your trade, they buy all the way down and sell it back on the way up because they have unlimited funds at their disposal. You don't have that luxury.
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Serendipper » Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:02 am

Mr Reasonable wrote:Computershare has no-fee DRIPs for a decent number of safe dividend stocks and allow for purchases of fractional shares. All you need is a basic checking account, a routing number, an account number and however much cash you can afford to put in.

The problem with that though is he'd need $2500 to open the account with margin just to have 2:1 leverage and only expect to make 1-5% at best. And from this lofty position in the market it seems to be a lot of risk. I'm not sure if he could open a cash account with $500. Used to be able to. But the amount of return wouldn't make it worth bothering, imo.

I think the only reason he is doing this is that he wants to bet against the USD. He just wants a bookie to take his bet.
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Zero_Sum » Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:04 am

Serendipper wrote:
Zero_Sum wrote:So, understanding the basics of currency trading starting out with say $100.00 is it very difficult understanding daily market fluctuations or rotations doubling your money overtime?

$100 is not enough, that's the minimum before a margin call is issued to sell you out. This is why you need to play with the demo account to get a feel for how it works.

https://www.fxcm.com/uk/forex-trading-demo/ Just fill in bs info and download the demo. The base currency is pounds, but you can pretend it's dollars.

This is where you'd actually have your account and the software sucks in my opinion https://www.forex.com/en-us/

FXCM is lightyears better.

I'm not sure the minimum amount to open an account, but realistically you'd need at least $200 to keep that position on if it went somewhat against you. I mean, what's your plan? Do you intend to hold it through hell and high water or are you going to cry uncle at a certain loss? When do you admit you're wrong?


I've opened a DEMO account twenty minutes ago, I'll make a thread on currency trading so we can discuss this more there. :wink:
"The condition of man... is a condition of war of everyone against everyone."

"I put for the general inclination of all mankind, a perpetual and restless desire of power after power, that ceaseth only in death."

-Thomas Hobbes-


"History is a set of lies agreed upon." - Napoleon Bonaparte

“To judge from the notions expounded by theologians, one must conclude that God created most men simply with a view to crowding hell.”― Marquis de Sade

“Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor.”
― Robert A. Heinlein


"Republicans are red and democrats are blue, neither political party gives a flying fuck about you." - Unknown Origin

“In the architecture of their life some may display Potemkin happiness in view of hiding the dark features of their fair weather relationship, preferring to set up a window dressing of fake satisfaction rather than being rejected as emotional outcasts." Erik Pevernagie
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Serendipper » Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:11 am

Forex.com says

The minimum initial deposit required is at least 50 of your selected base currency. However, we recommend you deposit at least 2,500 to allow you more flexibility and better risk management when trading your account. https://www.forex.com/en-us/support/faqs/popular-faqs/

I think you'll have to scan your DL and power bill or something and email it in. Then fund your account with a debit card. They used to take credit cards pre 2015 lol

I think you'd need at least $200 to put the USD/UNH short on and hold it. If it moves against you, the software will sell you out when it hits $99 and that's what you will have left. You can make it back though since it only takes $20 to place a EURUSD trade :D China is more volatile, so they require more margin.
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Zero_Sum » Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:15 am

Serendipper wrote:Forex.com says

The minimum initial deposit required is at least 50 of your selected base currency. However, we recommend you deposit at least 2,500 to allow you more flexibility and better risk management when trading your account. https://www.forex.com/en-us/support/faqs/popular-faqs/

I think you'll have to scan your DL and power bill or something and email it in. Then fund your account with a debit card. They used to take credit cards pre 2015 lol

I think you'd need at least $200 to put the USD/UNH short on and hold it. If it moves against you, the software will sell you out when it hits $99 and that's what you will have left. You can make it back though since it only takes $20 to place a EURUSD trade :D China is more volatile, so they require more margin.

Let's move this discussion of currency trading to this thread here as this thread is primarily about global economic collapse. :lol:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=193958&p=2698069#p2698069

Post all your latest posts there and we'll talk there as I have a feeling that I have a lot to learn from you. :wink:
"The condition of man... is a condition of war of everyone against everyone."

"I put for the general inclination of all mankind, a perpetual and restless desire of power after power, that ceaseth only in death."

-Thomas Hobbes-


"History is a set of lies agreed upon." - Napoleon Bonaparte

“To judge from the notions expounded by theologians, one must conclude that God created most men simply with a view to crowding hell.”― Marquis de Sade

“Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor.”
― Robert A. Heinlein


"Republicans are red and democrats are blue, neither political party gives a flying fuck about you." - Unknown Origin

“In the architecture of their life some may display Potemkin happiness in view of hiding the dark features of their fair weather relationship, preferring to set up a window dressing of fake satisfaction rather than being rejected as emotional outcasts." Erik Pevernagie
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Serendipper » Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:17 am

Mr Reasonable wrote:That's why you don't deposit money into a savings account. You buy shares of the oil and electricity companies, and the train and missile companies. You think they're going to be building a lot of F35s in the near future? Buy LMT. You think the american oil industry is going to get richer? Buy XOM. You think they move oil and missiles on trains? Buy UNP. Like electricity? Buy SO. They're at a low right now so the yield is high. By holding those shares, instead of putting your money into a shitty savings account at .5 percent interest, you'll average a significantly higher return, especially if you let them pay you the dividend in shares instead of cash...because the next dividend check will be bigger because you'll have more shares.

It's like when the bank charges interest on interest on a credit card. They use compounding to fuck people. When you take your dividend in shares and then next quarter they have to pay you a dividend on a dividend, you're compounding on them and you're fucking them.

If you had money to put in a savings account at JP Morgan bank, you'd be smarter to buy shares in JP Morgan. What do you think the smart bankers do with all that money that dummies put into savings accounts?

All that is good advice, but UNP was $70 in 2016 and is now almost twice that. It doubled in 2 yrs and could suffer a correction. He could be sitting on loses for a while. True, he still gets the dividend. But yeah that's the thing to do if your eye is on the long term.
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Mr Reasonable » Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:22 am

Serendipper wrote:
Mr Reasonable wrote:Computershare has no-fee DRIPs for a decent number of safe dividend stocks and allow for purchases of fractional shares. All you need is a basic checking account, a routing number, an account number and however much cash you can afford to put in.

The problem with that though is he'd need $2500 to open the account with margin just to have 2:1 leverage and only expect to make 1-5% at best. And from this lofty position in the market it seems to be a lot of risk. I'm not sure if he could open a cash account with $500. Used to be able to. But the amount of return wouldn't make it worth bothering, imo.

I think the only reason he is doing this is that he wants to bet against the USD. He just wants a bookie to take his bet.


I don't think you're understanding the nature of computershare. It's not a trading platform. It's a transfer agent that handles direct stock purchases from companies who offer those kinds of plans. So it's not an account that you trade in. It's strictly buy and hold until you want them to mail you a check. No instant execution, no margin, none of that. He doesn't even have 100 bucks to throw into the game, so his best bet is to start saving money by buying shares and holding them and letting the dividend drip. Then once he's got some money he can think about betting against the dollar. I mean...I'll bet him 100 bucks on whatever he wants. He doesn't even really need an account of any kind for that.

Ameritrade has no minimum to open an account, so he could do a money market checking attached to an individual brokerage and at least get better than basic savings interest on his balance while he gathers up cash and gets ready to make a move. He can trade a bunch of ETFs without fees there if he holds them for 30 days. But the same problem exists for him with such a small amount of money. If he pays 7 bucks commission 2 times on a buy and on a sell with 100 bucks in the game, then he needs to see more than a 14 percent gain to beat the taxes and fees if he's even going to make enough money to buy a soda.

He should just be saving, and buying and holding old school blue chips without paying any fees is a good way to do that.
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Serendipper » Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:47 am

Mr Reasonable wrote:As far as eventually failing to track the underlying commodity, sure...in some cases.

I suspect it's in all cases, but I haven't verified it. I know there is no oil etf that matches the spot price exactly and some are better than others.

But if you bought QQQ a few years ago, or at just about any time since then, then you'd be in the money on it right now.

Yeah I like index funds.

UWTI tracked oil very well, but got shut down because it was dangerously volatile, if I'm remembering correctly it was one of those that moves the same as the underlying commodity buy with increased volatility or beta. So great for getting in and out...it seemed, but people were losing their asses left and right trying to time the market.

They got overleveraged. Risk management is #1!

Tell Zero the truth...for a variery of complex reasons, forex trading is a bad idea, especially for the risk-averse.

Yeah trading currencies is the hardest thing on the planet. There is more money there than anywhere else and highly competitive.

I just want him to go to computershare and start DRIPs for XOM, LMT, UNP and SO. Then in a few years he'll have the money to actually make a rent check without having to look for a massive short term price move in whatever he wants to buy.

Dollar cost averaging over time is a good idea. Yeah man, you have the right plan.

Am I making sense here? The first step in being a capitalist exploiter of things who profits off nothing and lives for free and is a lazy piece of shit who gets away with financial murder...is to have some capital. Save money dude. Stop letting politics and emotions prevent you from doing that. Just get 100 a month into the bank and play the game. You're young. You can't even conceptualize the difference that it can make in your life to do whatever you have to do to get that capital.

Yes, don't eat your seed crop, as Molyneux says when discussing the difference in r/k selected people.
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Serendipper » Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:00 am

Mr Reasonable wrote:I don't think you're understanding the nature of computershare. It's not a trading platform. It's a transfer agent that handles direct stock purchases from companies who offer those kinds of plans. So it's not an account that you trade in. It's strictly buy and hold until you want them to mail you a check. No instant execution, no margin, none of that.

You're right, I had no idea. That's seems like a great thing!

He doesn't even have 100 bucks to throw into the game, so his best bet is to start saving money by buying shares and holding them and letting the dividend drip. Then once he's got some money he can think about betting against the dollar. I mean...I'll bet him 100 bucks on whatever he wants. He doesn't even really need an account of any kind for that.

Maybe you guys should work something out.

Ameritrade has no minimum to open an account, so he could do a money market checking attached to an individual brokerage and at least get better than basic savings interest on his balance while he gathers up cash and gets ready to make a move. He can trade a bunch of ETFs without fees there if he holds them for 30 days. But the same problem exists for him with such a small amount of money. If he pays 7 bucks commission 2 times on a buy and on a sell with 100 bucks in the game, then he needs to see more than a 14 percent gain to beat the taxes and fees if he's even going to make enough money to buy a soda.

How many times do you mention something being boring on here? That's such a trickling of money that it won't hold his attention.

He should just be saving, and buying and holding old school blue chips without paying any fees is a good way to do that.

Yes, get rich slowly. https://www.getrichslowly.org/

You have the right idea, but I think he wants to gamble on the dollar because of all the youtube videos he watched.
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Zero_Sum » Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:02 am

Serendipper wrote:
Mr Reasonable wrote:I don't think you're understanding the nature of computershare. It's not a trading platform. It's a transfer agent that handles direct stock purchases from companies who offer those kinds of plans. So it's not an account that you trade in. It's strictly buy and hold until you want them to mail you a check. No instant execution, no margin, none of that.

You're right, I had no idea. That's seems like a great thing!

He doesn't even have 100 bucks to throw into the game, so his best bet is to start saving money by buying shares and holding them and letting the dividend drip. Then once he's got some money he can think about betting against the dollar. I mean...I'll bet him 100 bucks on whatever he wants. He doesn't even really need an account of any kind for that.

Maybe you guys should work something out.

Ameritrade has no minimum to open an account, so he could do a money market checking attached to an individual brokerage and at least get better than basic savings interest on his balance while he gathers up cash and gets ready to make a move. He can trade a bunch of ETFs without fees there if he holds them for 30 days. But the same problem exists for him with such a small amount of money. If he pays 7 bucks commission 2 times on a buy and on a sell with 100 bucks in the game, then he needs to see more than a 14 percent gain to beat the taxes and fees if he's even going to make enough money to buy a soda.

How many times do you mention something being boring on here? That's such a trickling of money that it won't hold his attention.

He should just be saving, and buying and holding old school blue chips without paying any fees is a good way to do that.

Yes, get rich slowly. https://www.getrichslowly.org/

You have the right idea, but I think he wants to gamble on the dollar because of all the youtube videos he watched.


Well actually because I believe very soon China and the BRICS nations including Russia are about to give the United States along with the dollar a run down for its money especially since recently the yuan has become gold backed. What does the United States have, bitcoin? :lol:
"The condition of man... is a condition of war of everyone against everyone."

"I put for the general inclination of all mankind, a perpetual and restless desire of power after power, that ceaseth only in death."

-Thomas Hobbes-


"History is a set of lies agreed upon." - Napoleon Bonaparte

“To judge from the notions expounded by theologians, one must conclude that God created most men simply with a view to crowding hell.”― Marquis de Sade

“Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor.”
― Robert A. Heinlein


"Republicans are red and democrats are blue, neither political party gives a flying fuck about you." - Unknown Origin

“In the architecture of their life some may display Potemkin happiness in view of hiding the dark features of their fair weather relationship, preferring to set up a window dressing of fake satisfaction rather than being rejected as emotional outcasts." Erik Pevernagie
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Mr Reasonable » Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:12 am

Then let him open an ameritrade and throw 100 bucks at a bearish dollar etf. If it takes more than 30 days for the dollar to tank, then he'd have held it for 30 days and avoided commissions, thus fucking over the bank and getting to watch the world burn. It'd be a hell of a day for someone with his view.
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Serendipper » Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:23 am

Zero_Sum wrote:Well actually because I believe very soon China and the BRICS nations including Russia are about to give the United States along with the dollar a run down for its money especially since recently the yuan has become gold backed. What does the United States have, bitcoin? :lol:

I'm not sure what the gold backing really means. Every country has foreign currencies in reserve and gold is just another one of those.

I'm short the USD against New Zealand and long the USD against Australia because that's the way the interest rates are set to my benefit and it hedges me. I'm long the USD against the yen for the interest and short the EURNZD for the interest. I offset the EURNZD short with a sizeable EURUSD long because I'm pretty sure the euro can only go up as the ECB tapers. I hedge that with a GBPUSD short, which pays interest, and of course the USDJPY long.

USDRUB (russia) pays a good interest, but requires too much margin to hold it. USDZAR (south africa) pays a lot of interest too.

So I do a lot of fiddling lol
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Serendipper » Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:27 am

Mr Reasonable wrote:Then let him open an ameritrade and throw 100 bucks at a bearish dollar etf. If it takes more than 30 days for the dollar to tank, then he'd have held it for 30 days and avoided commissions, thus fucking over the bank and getting to watch the world burn. It'd be a hell of a day for someone with his view.

Yeah that's a good idea, but probably wouldn't make much at 1:1 leverage.
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Zero_Sum » Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:27 am

Mr Reasonable wrote:Then let him open an ameritrade and throw 100 bucks at a bearish dollar etf. If it takes more than 30 days for the dollar to tank, then he'd have held it for 30 days and avoided commissions, thus fucking over the bank and getting to watch the world burn. It'd be a hell of a day for someone with his view.

Yeah, I am definitely bearish against the long term prospects of the American dollar.
"The condition of man... is a condition of war of everyone against everyone."

"I put for the general inclination of all mankind, a perpetual and restless desire of power after power, that ceaseth only in death."

-Thomas Hobbes-


"History is a set of lies agreed upon." - Napoleon Bonaparte

“To judge from the notions expounded by theologians, one must conclude that God created most men simply with a view to crowding hell.”― Marquis de Sade

“Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor.”
― Robert A. Heinlein


"Republicans are red and democrats are blue, neither political party gives a flying fuck about you." - Unknown Origin

“In the architecture of their life some may display Potemkin happiness in view of hiding the dark features of their fair weather relationship, preferring to set up a window dressing of fake satisfaction rather than being rejected as emotional outcasts." Erik Pevernagie
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Zero_Sum » Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:28 am

Serendipper wrote:
Zero_Sum wrote:Well actually because I believe very soon China and the BRICS nations including Russia are about to give the United States along with the dollar a run down for its money especially since recently the yuan has become gold backed. What does the United States have, bitcoin? :lol:

I'm not sure what the gold backing really means. Every country has foreign currencies in reserve and gold is just another one of those.

I'm short the USD against New Zealand and long the USD against Australia because that's the way the interest rates are set to my benefit and it hedges me. I'm long the USD against the yen for the interest and short the EURNZD for the interest. I offset the EURNZD short with a sizeable EURUSD long because I'm pretty sure the euro can only go up as the ECB tapers. I hedge that with a GBPUSD short, which pays interest, and of course the USDJPY long.

USDRUB (russia) pays a good interest, but requires too much margin to hold it. USDZAR (south africa) pays a lot of interest too.

So I do a lot of fiddling lol



Kind of reminds me of a shell game. :wink:
"The condition of man... is a condition of war of everyone against everyone."

"I put for the general inclination of all mankind, a perpetual and restless desire of power after power, that ceaseth only in death."

-Thomas Hobbes-


"History is a set of lies agreed upon." - Napoleon Bonaparte

“To judge from the notions expounded by theologians, one must conclude that God created most men simply with a view to crowding hell.”― Marquis de Sade

“Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor.”
― Robert A. Heinlein


"Republicans are red and democrats are blue, neither political party gives a flying fuck about you." - Unknown Origin

“In the architecture of their life some may display Potemkin happiness in view of hiding the dark features of their fair weather relationship, preferring to set up a window dressing of fake satisfaction rather than being rejected as emotional outcasts." Erik Pevernagie
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Serendipper » Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:54 am

Zero_Sum wrote:
Mr Reasonable wrote:Then let him open an ameritrade and throw 100 bucks at a bearish dollar etf. If it takes more than 30 days for the dollar to tank, then he'd have held it for 30 days and avoided commissions, thus fucking over the bank and getting to watch the world burn. It'd be a hell of a day for someone with his view.

Yeah, I am definitely bearish against the long term prospects of the American dollar.

Bearish etf fund is probably mostly euro. USD indexes usually are.
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Zero_Sum » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:07 pm

Another day where the U.S. DOW sheds another 500 points.

Image

"The condition of man... is a condition of war of everyone against everyone."

"I put for the general inclination of all mankind, a perpetual and restless desire of power after power, that ceaseth only in death."

-Thomas Hobbes-


"History is a set of lies agreed upon." - Napoleon Bonaparte

“To judge from the notions expounded by theologians, one must conclude that God created most men simply with a view to crowding hell.”― Marquis de Sade

“Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor.”
― Robert A. Heinlein


"Republicans are red and democrats are blue, neither political party gives a flying fuck about you." - Unknown Origin

“In the architecture of their life some may display Potemkin happiness in view of hiding the dark features of their fair weather relationship, preferring to set up a window dressing of fake satisfaction rather than being rejected as emotional outcasts." Erik Pevernagie
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Zero_Sum » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:14 pm

This song is devoted to the constant roller coaster ride of the United States economy and stock market this year of 2018.

"The condition of man... is a condition of war of everyone against everyone."

"I put for the general inclination of all mankind, a perpetual and restless desire of power after power, that ceaseth only in death."

-Thomas Hobbes-


"History is a set of lies agreed upon." - Napoleon Bonaparte

“To judge from the notions expounded by theologians, one must conclude that God created most men simply with a view to crowding hell.”― Marquis de Sade

“Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor.”
― Robert A. Heinlein


"Republicans are red and democrats are blue, neither political party gives a flying fuck about you." - Unknown Origin

“In the architecture of their life some may display Potemkin happiness in view of hiding the dark features of their fair weather relationship, preferring to set up a window dressing of fake satisfaction rather than being rejected as emotional outcasts." Erik Pevernagie
User avatar
Zero_Sum
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Serendipper » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:37 pm

Zero_Sum wrote:Another day where the U.S. DOW sheds another 500 points.

And you'll notice the USD got stronger.

Usually, when stocks go down, the yen is the strongest, followed by the USD, then EUR, then GBP, then CAD, then NZD, then AUD. AUD takes it on the chin from all other majors. So if the market crashes, the yen, usd, euro, and pound will soar and will need moar QE infinity to hold them down somewhat.

When Fukushima happened, the yen skyrocketed and the G7 convened to sanction yen selling (buying other currencies) to hold it down. That's why I say if Japan sunk into the ocean and ceased to be a country, the yen would go infinite, which makes no sense, but that's how the computers are programmed. The yen is THE most desired thing on the planet, apparently.
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Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Zero_Sum » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:46 pm

Serendipper wrote:
Zero_Sum wrote:Another day where the U.S. DOW sheds another 500 points.

And you'll notice the USD got stronger.

Usually, when stocks go down, the yen is the strongest, followed by the USD, then EUR, then GBP, then CAD, then NZD, then AUD. AUD takes it on the chin from all other majors. So if the market crashes, the yen, usd, euro, and pound will soar and will need moar QE infinity to hold them down somewhat.

When Fukushima happened, the yen skyrocketed and the G7 convened to sanction yen selling (buying other currencies) to hold it down. That's why I say if Japan sunk into the ocean and ceased to be a country, the yen would go infinite, which makes no sense, but that's how the computers are programmed. The yen is THE most desired thing on the planet, apparently.


I believe this is the end game of the United States dollar through devaluation and being slowly squeezed out of the international oil markets which is the United States Achilles heel.

A lot of computer programmers and designers are Japanese. Correlation? :-k
"The condition of man... is a condition of war of everyone against everyone."

"I put for the general inclination of all mankind, a perpetual and restless desire of power after power, that ceaseth only in death."

-Thomas Hobbes-


"History is a set of lies agreed upon." - Napoleon Bonaparte

“To judge from the notions expounded by theologians, one must conclude that God created most men simply with a view to crowding hell.”― Marquis de Sade

“Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor.”
― Robert A. Heinlein


"Republicans are red and democrats are blue, neither political party gives a flying fuck about you." - Unknown Origin

“In the architecture of their life some may display Potemkin happiness in view of hiding the dark features of their fair weather relationship, preferring to set up a window dressing of fake satisfaction rather than being rejected as emotional outcasts." Erik Pevernagie
User avatar
Zero_Sum
Machiavellian Negator, Absurdist, And Cynic
 
Posts: 1571
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:05 pm
Location: United States- Financial And Commercial Corporate Feudal Oligarchic Empire/Gulag Of Wallstreet.

Re: Today's Stock Market Crash: Mr Reasonable

Postby Serendipper » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:54 pm

Zero_Sum wrote:
Serendipper wrote:
Zero_Sum wrote:Another day where the U.S. DOW sheds another 500 points.

And you'll notice the USD got stronger.

Usually, when stocks go down, the yen is the strongest, followed by the USD, then EUR, then GBP, then CAD, then NZD, then AUD. AUD takes it on the chin from all other majors. So if the market crashes, the yen, usd, euro, and pound will soar and will need moar QE infinity to hold them down somewhat.

When Fukushima happened, the yen skyrocketed and the G7 convened to sanction yen selling (buying other currencies) to hold it down. That's why I say if Japan sunk into the ocean and ceased to be a country, the yen would go infinite, which makes no sense, but that's how the computers are programmed. The yen is THE most desired thing on the planet, apparently.


I believe this is the end game of the United States dollar through devaluation and being slowly squeezed out of the international oil markets which is the United States Achilles heel.

I hope you're right because I am net-short the usd, but a market crash will negate that. Essentially I'm net-long US stocks.

Look at japan https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/cent ... ance-sheet Click max. Look at all that printing, but the yen just won't go down.

USDJPY was 300 in the 70s and now the yen is much stronger in spite of all the printing. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXJPUS

And in spite of near-zero interest rates for 20 years https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INTDSRJPM193N

Imagine if they stopped printing or raised rates? The yen would knock the moon from the sky!
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