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A coalition has been building from across west africa, to invade Gambia. I’m guessing Thursday Night, meaning Thursday during the day for those of us in America.
Gambia has approximately 2,500 guys, equivalent to a American brigade. Some of this will be pure support units.
The initial short term strategy will be to strike from multiplr directions and isolate smaller detachments from Gambia’s military, if cut off, they will be ordered to stand down, and most likely will surrender. If Gambia has any sense, they will garrison their troops around a stronghold, in aging, and make it impossible for any troops to be surrounded and cut off.
What this means is protracted military siege, most likely in a urban environment. House to house fighting, incredibly low morale. Not everyone in west africa can be expected to join up and fight in the coalition, the Ivory Coast for example just very recently has a large military rebellion over pay, and it can snap at any time. Likewise, Ebola remains a threat, as critters will be roused up by this fighting.
Expect many calls for troop defection and amnesty, UN using French and perhaps American air power backing the coalition with refugee aid likely as the minimum. I’m not aware we are supporting them via any other means than words.
Gambia is a tiny, long country, shaped like a cigar. Gambia can’t realistically hold it, it has no rear free from artillary fire.
The coalition will be aiming for a decisive strike early on. Pinpoint hits, assassination, bribing soldiers to kill or arrest him, or bounties on his current location. Supplies will be cut off almost immediately to them, so troops will likely take civilian hostages to claim they need humanitarian relief drops for the civilians.
Expent rapid encirclement, cutting off units, encouraging defections, pinpoint hits. Also expect some friendly fire, units not coordinating as well as they would like, and lots of absurd missed opportunities. Hoping the military comes to it’s senses and stands down in mass by tomorrow night.
This might coincidentally then into Trump’s first military decision if we are requested to provide air support. Trump would likely just kill him, annuling the US stance on not killing head of states.