Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

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Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Yes.
11
52%
No.
9
43%
I don't know.
1
5%
 
Total votes : 21

Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Pandora » Wed Jul 13, 2016 6:59 pm

Vienna. The city of high culture. Image

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsqunD7zyUc
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Arminius » Wed Jul 13, 2016 8:35 pm

I love Vienna. Wien, mein Wien.

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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Pandora » Wed Jul 13, 2016 8:52 pm

Interesting look at some of the proposed natural gas pipelines into Europe.



The South Pars / North Dome field is a natural gas condensate field located in the Persian Gulf. It is the world's largest gas field, shared between Iran and Qatar. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the field holds an estimated 1,800 trillion cubic feet (51 trillion cubic metres) of in-situ natural gas and some 50 billion barrels (7.9 billion cubic metres) of natural gas condensates.

This gas field covers an area of 9,700 square kilometres (3,700 sq mi), of which 3,700 square kilometres (1,400 sq mi) (South Pars) is in Iranian territorial waters and 6,000 square kilometres (2,300 sq mi) (North Dome) is in Qatari territorial waters.

According to International Energy Agency (IEA), the combined structure is the world's largest gas field. The field recoverable gas reserve is equivalent to some 215 billion barrels (34.2 billion cubic metres) of oil and it also holds about 16 billion barrels (2.5 billion cubic metres) of recoverable condensate corresponding of about 230 billion barrels (37 billion cubic metres) of oil equivalent recoverable hydrocarbons.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Par ... sate_field


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The Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline (called the Friendship Pipeline by the governments involved and the Islamic gas pipeline by some Western sources) is a proposed natural gas pipeline running from the Iranian South Pars / North Dome Gas-Condensate field towards Europe via Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to supply European customers as well as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. The pipeline was planned to be 5,600 km (3,500 mi) long and have a diameter of 56 inches.

A previous proposal, known as the Persian Pipeline, had seen a route from Iran's South Pars to Europe via Turkey; it was apparently abandoned after the Swiss energy company Elektrizitätsgesellschaft Laufenburg halted its contract with Iran in October 2010 in the face of pressure over US sanctions against Iran.

In July 2011 Iran, Iraq and Syria said they planned to sign a contract potentially worth around $6bn to construct a pipeline running from South Pars towards Europe, via these countries and Lebanon and then under the Mediterranean to a European country, with a refinery and related infrastructure in Damascus.

In November 2012 the United States dismissed reports that construction had begun on the pipeline, saying that this had been claimed repeatedly and that "it never seems to materialize." A framework agreement was to be signed in early 2013, with costs now estimated at $10bn; construction plans were delayed by the Syrian civil war.

The pipeline would be a competitor to the Nabucco pipeline from Azerbaijan to Europe. It is also an alternative to the Qatar-Turkey pipeline which had been proposed by Qatar to run from Qatar to Europe via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Turkey. Syria's rationale for rejecting the Qatar proposal was said to be "to protect the interests of [its] Russian ally, which is Europe's top supplier of natural gas."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Iraq-Syria_pipeline.

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The Qatar-Turkey pipeline is a proposed natural gas pipeline running from the Iranian-Qatari South Pars / North Dome Gas-Condensate field towards Turkey, where it could connect with the Nabucco pipeline to supply European customers as well as Turkey. One route to Turkey is via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria,and another is through Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq.
Syria's rationale for rejecting the Qatar proposal was said to be "to protect the interests of [its] Russian ally, which is Europe's top supplier of natural gas."

In 2012 an analyst cited by Ansa Mediterranean suggested that Qatar's involvement in the Syrian civil war was based in part on its desire to build a pipeline to Turkey through Syria:


"The discovery in 2009 of a new gas field near Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus, and Syria opened new possibilities to bypass the Saudi Barrier and to secure a new source of income. Pipelines are in place already in Turkey to receive the gas. Only Al-Assad is in the way. Qatar along with the Turks would like to remove Al-Assad and install the Syrian chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood. It is the best organized political movement in the chaotic society and can block Saudi Arabia's efforts to install a more fanatical Wahhabi based regime. Once the Brotherhood is in power, the Emir's broad connections with Brotherhood groups throughout the region should make it easy for him to find a friendly ear and an open hand in Damascus."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar-Turkey_pipeline






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Persian Pipeline, also known as the Pars Pipeline and Iran–Europe pipeline, is a proposed natural gas pipeline to transfer Iranian gas from the Persian Gulf to European markets.

This planned pipeline will connect Iran's South Pars gas field with Turkey and then with European markets. It would consist of two principal sections:

- Iranian section, also is called Iran Gas Trunkline 9 or IGAT-9, starting in Assaluyeh will transport gas from South Pars gas field to the city of Bazargan at the border with Turkey.

- The European section, which will cross Turkey, passing on to Greece and Italy. In Italy the pipeline would be split:

- the northern branch will run to Switzerland, Austria and Germany, while southern branch will supply France and Spain.
It is not clear if the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, foreseen for Iran gas export to Europe, would be part of this project or not.

The pipeline is proposed as a Build-Own-Operate project. According to the National Iranian Gas Export Company (NIGEC) two Iranian and two foreign companies were bidding for the contract awarded to one Iranian company or consortium and one foreign company. It is possible that Iran and Turkey will set up a joint company for the building of a pipeline in Iran to the Turkish border, and another joint company on the construction of a gas pipeline in Turkey from Iran's border to the Greek border. It is also alleged that Iran is relying on financial involvement from China. China is reportedly to consider $42.8 billion for investment in Iranian refineries and pipelines. Iranian Oil Minister Masoud Mir Kazemi confirmed in July 2010 that NIGEC and Turkey's Som Petrol signed a contract to build a pipeline that will cross Turkey.

The Persian pipeline is seen as an alternative to the Nabucco pipeline. Although Iran was willing to be a part of the Nabucco project, the Iranian government reconsidered its options and decided to focus on the Persian pipeline. According to Hossein Zoulanvar, a member of Majlis Energy Commission of Iran, the reasoning to construct and use Persian pipeline for exports to Europe instead comes from US pressures on European countries to impose sanctions on Iranian gas sector.

It is noteworthy that Russia which had been trying to block Nabucco project from realization has been trying to re-route Azerbaijani gas exports planned for initial phase of the project through other possible pipelines such as Mozdok – Makhachkala – Kazi Magomed pipeline. Although many argue that Persian pipeline may seem as an alternative to Nabucco, hence rival to South Stream project, Russia denounces the allegations and backs the Iranian initiative of building Persian pipeline.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Pipeline
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Arminius » Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:23 pm

It is a pure struggle for power around gas pipelines to Europe.

The following picture shows the gas pipelines to Europe:

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Last edited by Arminius on Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Pandora » Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:26 pm

Nabucco Pipeline Project



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The Nabucco-West pipeline (also referred to as the Turkey–Austria gas pipeline) is a proposed natural gas pipeline from the Turkish-Bulgarian border to Austria. It is a modification of the original Nabucco Pipeline project, which was to run from Erzurum in Turkey to Baumgarten an der March in Austria. The aim of the Nabucco pipeline is to diversify the natural gas suppliers and delivery routes for Europe, thus reducing European dependence on Russian energy.

The original project was backed by several European Union member states and by the United States, and was seen as a rival to the South Stream pipeline project. The main supplier was expected to be Iraq, with potential supplies from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Egypt.
The main supply for the Nabucco West was to be Shah Deniz gas through the proposed Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP).

The project is being developed by a consortium of six companies. Preparations started in 2002 and the intergovernmental agreement between Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Austria was signed on 13 July 2009. After an announcement of the construction of TANAP, the consortium has submitted the Nabucco-West project. Construction of Nabucco-West depended on the gas export route decision by the Shah Deniz consortium. After Shah Deniz consortium decision to prefer the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline over Nabucco, Nabucco's shareholders have to decide the next steps for the project.

The Nabucco project is backed by the European Union and the United States. In the Trans-European Networks - Energy (TEN - E) programme, the Nabucco pipeline is designated as a project of strategic importance. An objective of the project is to connect the European Union better to the natural gas sources in the Caspian Sea and the Middle East regions.

The project has been driven by the intention to diversify its current energy supplies, and to lessen European dependence on Russian energy—the biggest supplier of gas to Europe. The Russia–Ukraine gas disputes have been one of the factors driving the search for alternative suppliers, sources, and routes.
Moreover, as per the European Commission, Europe's gas consumption is expected to increase from 502 billion cubic metres, in 2005, to 815 billion cubic metres in 2030, which would mean Russia alone would not be able to meet the demand.

The original 3,893 kilometres (2,419 mi) long pipeline was to run from Ahiboz in Turkey via Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary to Baumgarten an der March, a major natural gas hub in Austria.
In Ahiboz, it would be joined with two feeder lines, one connecting to Georgia in the north (South Caucasus Pipeline), and the other connecting to Iraq (pipeline to be built) in the southeast.

It would be fed also from the Tabriz–Ankara pipeline. 2,730 kilometres (1,700 mi) of the pipeline was to be laid in Turkey, 412 kilometres (256 mi) in Bulgaria, 469 kilometres (291 mi) in Romania, 384 kilometres (239 mi) in Hungary, and 47 kilometres (29 mi) in Austria.

According to Reinhard Mitschek, managing director of Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH, construction of the pipeline was scheduled to begin in 2013 and would become operational by 2017. However, in June 2013, the Shah Deniz Consortium had chosen a rival project, Trans Adriatic Pipeline, that has a route Turkey–Greece-Albania-Italy, and the future of Nabucco project is unclear.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nabucco_pipeline

Trans Adriatic Pipeline
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Pandora » Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:42 pm

Arminius wrote:It is a pure struggle for power around gas pipelines to Europe.

The following picture shows the Russian gas pipelines to Europe:


South Stream Project by Russia was cancelled because Bulgaria buckled under sanctions.

It's now pursuing the Blue Stream Project through Turkey.

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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Arminius » Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:51 pm

This gas pipeline politics is primarily directed against Russia. .... Do you smell the coming war?
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Arminius » Thu Jul 14, 2016 1:45 am

The following map shows pipelines in Europe, including cross-border, international pipelines which originate or end in European countries. You can click the map to see an enlarged version. On the map and table, pipeline label codes are colored green for oil, red for gas and blue for products, such as gasoline and ethylene. The diameter, length and capacity of the pipelines, if known, are shown on the tables.

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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Mithus » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:11 am

Will there be war in Europe before 2050?


The German government called upon the population today to store up food and water for at least two weeks in case of a possible armed aggression and oncoming catastrophe.
..... panta rhei .............................................
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Arminius » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:18 am

Mithus wrote:
Will there be war in Europe before 2050?


The German government called upon the population today to store up food and water for at least two weeks in case of a possible armed aggression and oncoming catastrophe.

Here are some sources:

- http://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/zeitges ... rophenfall .
- http://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland ... 45252.html .
- http://www.epochtimes.de/politik/deutsc ... 24615.html .
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Mictlantecuhtli » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:47 am

Arminius wrote:
Mithus wrote:
Will there be war in Europe before 2050?


The German government called upon the population today to store up food and water for at least two weeks in case of a possible armed aggression and oncoming catastrophe.

Here are some sources:

- http://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/zeitges ... rophenfall .
- http://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland ... 45252.html .
- http://www.epochtimes.de/politik/deutsc ... 24615.html .


Tensions running high between Ukraine and Russia.

All of this happening within the same week of Ukrainian politicians saying they're bracing for a ground invasion by Russia. Fancy that....
Civilization is a ship of fools headed to a one way destination of catastrophe and annihilation, its many captains populated by asshole-idiots that all agree it is unsinkable.

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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Arminius » Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:09 am

Ukraine and Russia, yes, and do not forget the situations in Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, ... (Kurdistan). They all are not very far away from Europe.

War_or_warlike_events.jpg
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby One Liner » Mon Aug 22, 2016 10:11 am

I voted a no as there is no way I will be able to verify this as I will most likely be dead before 2050 (given my family history).
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Arminius » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:52 pm

One Liner, "before 2050" also includes the near future, for example the next hour. :wink:
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Meno_ » Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:18 pm

I voted yes, unless Europe can again reclaim its place in its superior historical superiority in political science, and solve this certain slippery slope.

I believe, this can, and must happen, in spite of its very checkered past.
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Arminius » Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:50 pm

If Europe will continue its self-destructiv politics, then there will be no future for it.
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Mictlantecuhtli » Mon Aug 22, 2016 6:32 pm

One Liner wrote:I voted a no as there is no way I will be able to verify this as I will most likely be dead before 2050 (given my family history).


Will you be dead in 2018-2020 though?
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Mictlantecuhtli » Mon Aug 22, 2016 6:33 pm

Arminius wrote:If Europe will continue its self-destructiv politics, then there will be no future for it.


There is no livable future for civilization across the planet more likely.
Civilization is a ship of fools headed to a one way destination of catastrophe and annihilation, its many captains populated by asshole-idiots that all agree it is unsinkable.

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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Arminius » Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:05 pm

There has never been so much violence (compare alone the current number of wars and warlike events) in the world than today (which roughly means from 1990 till now).
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Arminius » Mon Aug 22, 2016 8:02 pm

Please read this:

BBC News wrote:Philippines' Rodrigo Duterte threatens to leave UN.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has threatened to "separate" from the UN after it criticised his war on drugs as a crime under international law.

Mr Duterte said he might ask China and African nations to form another body. He also accused the UN of failing on terrorism, hunger and ending conflicts.

Mr Duterte, elected in May, has sanctioned the killing of traffickers to try to wipe out the drugs trade.

The UN has repeatedly condemned the drive as a violation of human rights.
:!: :-k :idea: :!:

Some 900 suspected drug traffickers have been killed since Mr Duterte was elected on 9 May.

Duterte: 'Punisher' to president

Last week, two UN human rights experts said Mr Duterte's directive for police and the public to kill suspected drug traffickers amounted to "incitement to violence and killing, a crime under international law".

In an expletives-laden tirade against the UN on Sunday, Mr Duterte branded the experts "stupid", saying they should count the number of innocent lives lost to drugs.

"I do not want to insult you. But maybe we'll just have to decide to separate from the United Nations," he said.

"If you are that rude, we might just as well leave," he said.

"So take us out of your organisation. You have done nothing. Where were you here the last time? Never. Except to criticise," he said.

Mr Duterte said the UN should refund its contribution "so we can go out".

Mr Duterte said the UN had been unable to combat hunger and terrorism and had failed to end the killing of civilians in Iraq and Syria.

"You now, United Nations, if you can say one bad thing about me, I can give 10 [about you]. I tell you, you are [useless]. Because if you are really true to your mandate, you could have stopped all these wars and killings."

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and the UN's Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) have both condemned Mr Duterte's "apparent endorsement of extrajudicial killings, which is illegal and a breach of fundamental rights and freedoms".

Mr Duterte was sworn in as president in June, after winning a landslide election victory.

He had previously been mayor of the country's third biggest city, Davao, for 22 years where his tough approach and controversial comments earned him the nickname "The Punisher".

Whatever Duterte's reasons are, the UN is indeed as corrupt as the US and the EU are.
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Meno_ » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:46 pm

Include the Roman Catholic Churc in the list. The very bodies trying to influence opinion there are very guilty.

Points of fact: the Catholic Church disallows birth control, effectively causing large scale human right violations, such as child prostitution, mass starvation.

The US government and major world powers give generously to aphumanitarian agencies and directly to the government, knowing that the monies meant to being it the victims of natural disaster so prevelant in that part of the country, end up in Swiss bank accounts belonging to various politicians.

The drug lords, both Philippino and Chinese, rake in huge profits, causing further economic decline, poverty ap, illness and death, from an area with a staggering 50% plus unemployment.

He is absolutely right to model his policies after Signapore, with similar problems and solutions. Another instance of outside pressures in the name of good will, human rights , and the insincerity of alleged foreign aid.
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby One Liner » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:52 am

Arminius wrote:One Liner, "before 2050" also includes the near future, for example the next hour. :wink:

My official position on this matter is that there is already a war in Europe (it's just a different type of war) and it's a war that will get a lot worse as time progresses.
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Arminius » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:09 am

jerkey wrote:Include the Roman Catholic Churc in the list. The very bodies trying to influence opinion there are very guilty.

Points of fact: the Catholic Church disallows birth control, effectively causing large scale human right violations, such as child prostitution, mass starvation.

The US government and major world powers give generously to aphumanitarian agencies and directly to the government, knowing that the monies meant to being it the victims of natural disaster so prevelant in that part of the country, end up in Swiss bank accounts belonging to various politicians.

The drug lords, both Philippino and Chinese, rake in huge profits, causing further economic decline, poverty ap, illness and death, from an area with a staggering 50% plus unemployment.

He is absolutely right to model his policies after Signapore, with similar problems and solutions. Another instance of outside pressures in the name of good will, human rights , and the insincerity of alleged foreign aid.

What you are describing here can also be said about the Occidental nations, especially the US nation: "... birth control ..., ... effectively causing large scale human right violations ..., ... natural disaster ..., ... end up in Swiss bank accounts belonging to various politicians ..., ... drug lords, rake in huge profits, causing further economic decline, poverty ap, illness and death, ... unemployment ..., ... in the name of good will, human rights , and the insincerity of alleged foreign aid" ....
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Arminius » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:14 am

One Liner wrote:
Arminius wrote:One Liner, "before 2050" also includes the near future, for example the next hour. :wink:

My official position on this matter is that there is already a war in Europe (it's just a different type of war) and it's a war that will get a lot worse as time progresses.

I guess, you mean the ecomical and demographical war.
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Re: Will there be war in Europe before 2050?

Postby Arminius » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:16 am

One Liner wrote:
Arminius wrote:One Liner, "before 2050" also includes the near future, for example the next hour. :wink:

My official position on this matter is that there is already a war in Europe (it's just a different type of war) and it's a war that will get a lot worse as time progresses.

That is interesting.

I hope, you have enough water in that central Australian desert. Maybe you have not enough water to write more than one line. :wink:

Many belief system founders came from desert regions, spent a relatively long time in the desert.

From which region in Eastern Europe do you originally come?
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