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Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:15 pm
by Mr Reasonable
Pav, always bet the odds when the point is 8. And look for blackjack tables where the dealer has to hit on a soft 17.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:21 pm
by Fixed Cross
Rewatching the Mayweather-McGregor fight again. I never appreciated boxing until now. What a beautiful, elegant and powerful sport.
Mayweather completely totalled McGregor without a lot of effort, just a decision in round 6 or so that he had seen enough of the barbarians punches and decided to walk in his direction. From that moment he didn't stop advancing and throwing swift lightningbolts in the Irish cunts already not too glorious face.

It was Mayweathers last fight, just in time to make me a fan. Not just of him, but of the sport of boxing.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:26 am
by PavlovianModel146
Mr Reasonable wrote:Pav, always bet the odds when the point is 8. And look for blackjack tables where the dealer has to hit on a soft 17.


The Odds have an expectation of 0%, making them one of the few bets in a casino that have no House Edge working against the player. Of course, you must make either a Pass or Don't Pass bet to make an Odds bet, and those bets do come with a House Edge against you. With that said, there is no mathematical expectation difference between betting the Odds on any number as opposed to any other number as all Odds bets have a House Edge of 0%.

Unfortunately, the second one is just completely wrong. Seventeen is a bad hand for the dealer, so you would prefer a game in which the dealer must stand. I know it doesn't seem that way because a Hit would seem to give the dealer a chance to eventually bust if you have a total of 12-16, but the dealer could beat your seventeen total if he has to hit rather than just a Push. Also, the dealer is more likely to make a hand of Hard 17 all the way to 18-21 rather than bust. In fact, there are four ranks that give the dealer a better hand with one card (A-4) four ranks that give the dealer a Hard 17 anyway (All Tens) and only five ranks which put the dealer in a position that he might bust (5-9).

Ultimately, the player finishes with a total of 17-21 frequently enough that he is better off if the dealer Stands on Soft-17. Switching the Rules from S17 to H17 adds approximately 0.2-0.22% to the House Edge depending on the other rules and number of decks used.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:38 am
by Mr Reasonable
What if all the players decide to stick at 11 and the dealer has to hit on soft 17? So we leave all the cards that can bust the dealer.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:39 am
by Mr Reasonable
Fixed, watch the 2 Marcos Maidana fights, watch him beat Alvarez, and Pacquiao.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:36 am
by PavlovianModel146
Mr Reasonable wrote:What if all the players decide to stick at 11 and the dealer has to hit on soft 17? So we leave all the cards that can bust the dealer.


1.) Standing on Eleven is NEVER a correct decision because there is absolutely zero probability of the player busting on the first card.

2.) Furthermore, if you have a certain number of cards remaining in the deck, then each individual card has an equal probability of coming out. What that means is, what if a player hits and gets a three? If that happens, then the dealer is now MORE likely to draw a ten than he was previously because ten-value cards are now a higher proportion of the deck than they were before that hit. Unless the players KNOW what card is going to come out, then there is absolutely no reason to not make the best playing decision.

3.) Also, there are only two ways that a dealer can have a total of Soft-17 without having already taken a hit. The dealer can have an Ace underneath (hole card) and a six showing, or the dealer can have an Ace showing and a six underneath. If the dealer Hits Soft-17, then in an eight-deck game (or any decks) the player would DOUBLE DOWN against EITHER a dealer six or ace knowing that the dealer doesn't have the goods. If the dealer Stands Soft-17, then the player would DOUBLE on a dealer six showing no matter what (with a total of eleven), HIT on a dealer Ace showing with 3+ decks, but it becomes a DOUBLE with two or fewer decks on Stand-17 because the dealer having an Ace but no Blackjack affects the deck composition enough to make doubling the correct decision.

4.) You are failing to consider that a Ten does not cause a dealer with Ace-Six or Six-Ace to bust, it just gives the dealer a total of Hard-Seventeen. You're better off for the dealer to have to stand on Soft-Seventeen than MAYBE ending up with Hard-17 and then having to stand anyway.

5.) Alternatively, if it is Stand-17, then a dealt A-6 or 6-A for the dealer leaves the dealer with the weakest possible finishing hand he/she could have without busting, which is clearly a positive for the player. ESPECIALLY a player with a starting hand of eleven total.

6.) Even if you were right in your situational, which you unequivocally are not, (I'm sorry) dealers are going to end up with Soft-17 more often having taken multiple cards already rather than starting with A-6 or 6-A already, simply by virtue of the fact that there are so many possible ways to do it. With that, one situational is not sufficient to change the general rule.

And, I cannot emphasize this enough, standing on a total of eleven is, probably, one of the Top Five worst possible decisions you could ever make at a Blackjack Table. That would be almost as bad as hitting on 19, or something along those lines. It's just an awful play.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:45 am
by Fixed Cross
Mr Reasonable wrote:Fixed, watch the 2 Marcos Maidana fights, watch him beat Alvarez, and Pacquiao.

Mayweather vs Alvarez I watched, don't know Maidana yet.
You can see how boxing is an old and honed tradition of strengthening the constitution and making it durable, where MMA is just a hodgepodge of techniques to hurt people with no real discipline or style or consistency, no value at all. I didn't like it when my teachers started messing with it, made me quit kung fu.

Im watching this fight now, amusing.


Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 5:56 am
by Mr Reasonable
Boxing is a sport, mma is just a bunch of jackasses beating each other up.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 5:56 am
by Mr Reasonable
Pav I meant 12. Sticking at 12.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:21 am
by PavlovianModel146
Mr Reasonable wrote:Pav I meant 12. Sticking at 12.


That's a pretty serious difference!

You would Stand on 12 vs. a Dealer showing a Six no matter what and you would hit a 12 against a dealer showing an Ace no matter what.

First thing to look at is that there are five ranks that give you a pat hand (5-9) regardless while only four ranks bust you. The next thing to look at is the fact that two of those ranks to give you a pat hand (eight and nine) make really good hands.

In this instance, you are still better for the dealer to Stand on Soft-17 because, once again, a ten for the Dealer just makes it Hard-17 and the dealer is standing anyway. While four ranks bust you (10-J-Q-K) four ranks give you a hand that beats the dealer, one rank (5) pushes it and four ranks (A-4) give you another chance to hit. The math definitely favors Hitting on 12 against a dealer showing Ace regardless of the situation.

Furthermore, if you use this calculator:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjac ... alculator/

You will find that all situations of 12 against a dealer Ace have a negative expected value, however, the negative expected value is WORSE when the dealer must hit soft-17, which again supports the assertion that Hit Soft 17 is a bad rule for the player.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:34 am
by Mr Reasonable
Cruise ships always hit on soft 17.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:54 pm
by Fixed Cross
Mr Reasonable wrote:Boxing is a sport, mma is just a bunch of jackasses beating each other up.

As much has become clear. Boxing is an art as well, which is what only now registered with me.
I would like to see Maidana take on Connor next. I think Connor would like that even less.

Id even like Maidana to take on Connor under a MMA rules. He looked like he was restraining himself from kneeing Mayweather, seems like a gang affiliated street fighter who disciplined himself into boxing.

There is an irreducible difference in power between something with style and something without style. Style is required for real strength. What we call style is simply a comprehensive mastery of oneself.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:05 pm
by Fixed Cross
Mr Reasonable wrote:Cruise ships always hit on soft 17.

Is that a matter of less money and risk involved?
Im reading that this behaviour is prevalent in low entry Las Vegas tables as well.

Never having played cards in a casino or for real money in general, I guess it simply increases the potential lifespan of the game, "makes it more interesting" like bad boxing is more interesting to a drunken crowd and rowdy betting.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:54 am
by Mr Reasonable
Dealer hitting on soft 17 lowers the odds of the player winning, which is ok if the drinks are free and flowing.

Boxing, yes...its the sweet science.

The real fight you want to see is coming up. Gennady Golovkin vs. Canelo Alvarez.

Its a true toss us. Alvarez has fought better fighters, and he's young and hits hard. But GGG is older, more disciplined, and generally knocks everyone the fuck out because he's not afraid to take the hard punches while going in for the kill. GGG can win it. And most people think he will. Alvarez has only ever lost to Mayweather, but he's been ducking GGG for a while. He was forced to take this fight or give up his belt. It'll be very interesting to watch.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:36 am
by Fixed Cross
Mr Reasonable wrote:Dealer hitting on soft 17 lowers the odds of the player winning, which is ok if the drinks are free and flowing.

I had to read up on that, it seemed more challenging if he hits it. Apparently it eventually is a .2 percent disadvantage for the player in the long run... always sneaky. Of course in an investment strategy one has to ask if alcohol is being served and if the system is closed or open. Fundamentals, the devil, details, statistics, the world is so messy and that is so advantageous, it is dizzying.

Boxing, yes...its the sweet science.

The real fight you want to see is coming up. Gennady Golovkin vs. Canelo Alvarez.

Its a true toss us. Alvarez has fought better fighters, and he's young and hits hard. But GGG is older, more disciplined, and generally knocks everyone the fuck out because he's not afraid to take the hard punches while going in for the kill. GGG can win it. And most people think he will. Alvarez has only ever lost to Mayweather, but he's been ducking GGG for a while. He was forced to take this fight or give up his belt. It'll be very interesting to watch.

That ought to be good, thanks. September 16.
My money would be on Golovkin, after watching a minute - I can see why Canelo is ducking him, he punches like Mike Tyson.
But what do I know. id be more scared of Golovkin than of Alvarez. I could take Alvarez on a good day, or I can imagine that.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:47 am
by Mr Reasonable
Alvarez is De La Hoya's cash cow, so his matches have been carefully selected to ensure his record remains good so he can keep getting the big bucks. Golovkin is hungry, and ruthless, and will fight harder, and more offensively than most everyone Alvarez has seen. I would be genuinely surprised if the bout goes 12 rounds.

Re: What are you doing?

PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:33 am
by encode_decode
    Hmm, what am I doing? Apparently I am Multi-tasking . . . so three things at once.

    1. Cutting my toenails.
    2. Typing this response.
    3. Wondering how it is possible that I can be doing 1 and 2 at the same time.

    Life's great mysteries . . .

    :evilfun:

    Re: What are you doing?

    PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:35 am
    by Mr Reasonable
    Gross.

    Re: What are you doing?

    PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 4:30 pm
    by WendyDarling
    Just returned from walking Cotton through the park where I was offered a trade, a three year old boy in exchange for my two years old boy dog. That three year old boy had way too much testosterone coursing through his veins for on his way to the playground equipment with his extended family he hit his cousin in the face with a stick and knocked his little sister down so his Mom offered to trade her son out. While that kid may be an evil little shit his mother didn't need to say that out loud, nor wish to be rid of him (jokingly even) in his presence. His mother and her female friend were harsh with their words and it was all within earshot of the little boy. The time out the mother gave her son was appropriate but all the verbal haranguing was excessive. What do you guys think?

    Re: What are you doing?

    PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:32 pm
    by gib
    WendyDarling wrote:What do you guys think?


    I think the kid needs some anger management therapy.

    Re: What are you doing?

    PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:11 am
    by A Shieldmaiden
    WendyDarling wrote:
    What do you guys think?

    Gib wrote:
    I think the kid needs some anger management therapy.


    I disagree. There is a connection between parents' emotional triggers and their child's behavior. I think if any anger management is to take place it should start with the parent and their own history with it.

    Little ones are sponges and pick up on behaviours very easily. What is wrong with taking aside the child and explaining why this behaviour is unacceptable. Threatening to remove the child from it's home would only fester more feelings of anxiety and promote feelings of little self worth. Also, children remember these things.

    Re: What are you doing?

    PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:28 pm
    by Mr Reasonable
    Waiting on an insurance company.

    Re: What are you doing?

    PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:29 pm
    by Mr Reasonable
    A 74 year old man caused a 3 car accident and broke one of my cars. I'm not an expert, but I think this one is totalled.

    Re: What are you doing?

    PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:15 pm
    by A Shieldmaiden
    Weather here is fantastic.

    Temps around 2c,(35f?) even a light show of SNOW, have a lovely wood fire crackling away, although no space around it, the cats and dogs prevail.

    Re: What are you doing?

    PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:19 pm
    by Mr Reasonable
    Its hot here, so I'm staying inside until it gets dark.