Will machines completely replace all human beings?

This is the main board for discussing philosophy - formal, informal and in between.

Moderator: Only_Humean

Forum rules
Forum Philosophy

Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Alf » Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:13 am

MagsJ wrote:
Alf wrote:Machines need resources too. Similar to living beings, they will tend to eradicate all other competitors.

They do (tend to eradicate all other competitors)? has something happened that I don't know about?

Yes, because I said: "they will tend ....".

MagsJ wrote:some bot Vs human war?

Humans and machines are in state of competition, and many of the humans help the machines to win this competition in a similar way as the white humans help all other humans to eliminate the white humans, although or because the white humans have brought the progress to all humans, thus also to the non-white humans. And now white humans as the inventors of machines are not needed anymore, since other humans and even machines can already invent machines.

This situation seems to be paradoxical. There is the same seeming paradox between two groups of humans too: Those who give benefit and help and those who get this benefit and help. The disappearance of those who give benefit and help is affirmed by those who get this benefit and help from the former. So, this is in spite of the fact that the latter are benefitting and getting help from the former. This seeming paradox can be solved, since those who give benefit and help are too expensive and not needed any longer, and those who get benefit and help are still cheaper and still needed (this will likely change in the future too). There is a similar seeming paradox between machines and certain (and later likely all) humans.

So, not only can and do e.g. feminists and islamists or e.g. white white-haters and non-white white-haters have the same enemy, this can and do e.g. intelligent machines and stupid people too. They all have only one enemy: the white men.

MagsJ wrote:has this tendency been proven in the field.. as it were? or is this just simply a bold claim you have decided to make?

Why should machines not do what living beings do? Machines are products of humans. Being like purely rational humans, machines are more rational and thus more efficient than humans. Humans are not purely rational, but only relatively rational, since they are emotional too. So, the sentence "humans invented machines" can be interpreted as "humans invented purely rational humans who lack a biological system". This "purely rational humans who lack a biological system" are the machines. If they get a biological system, they are "merely" androids, not humans. And if humans become more like machines, they are "merely" cyborgs, not machines. Maybe humans and machines will become more and more similar to each other in the future, but they will never become the same. As Arminius has already explained, the only chance for the humans’ survival in the future will be to become more and more similar to the machines, because otherwise humans will likely disappear.

surreptitious75 wrote:Machines need resources like any other product otherwise they will become obsolete
That does not necessarily mean elimination of competitors although that is an option

Not necessarily. That’s right. I was speaking about a tendency.

Alf wrote:Machines need resources too. Similar to living beings, they will tend to eradicate all other competitors.

Humans tend to destroy their environemt, tend to destroy nature, tend to eradicate their competitors.

Machines as the product of humans tend to do the same. The difference is that machines are capable of doing this much more effectively than humans. If they will do it, is a different issue. What I have said is that there is this tendency.
User avatar
Alf
 
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:07 am

Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Arminius » Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:26 pm

gib wrote:Is this thread still going on?
Arminius wrote:Yes, it is.

Image

Replies_WMCRAHB_03_04_2014_-_23_10_2017.png
Replies in this Thread (03-04-2014 — 23-10-2017).
Replies_WMCRAHB_03_04_2014_-_23_10_2017.png (30.35 KiB) Viewed 265 times
Image
User avatar
Arminius
ILP Legend
 
Posts: 5555
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:51 pm
Location: Saltus Teutoburgiensis

Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Alf » Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:42 pm

Arminius wrote:
Only_Humean wrote:
Arminius wrote:Again: p is NOT false and q is NOT false. Because: All expensive things are replaced by cheaper things. And: We know that machines are cheaper than human beings, and we know that machines replace human beings.

Then please, show me a machine that completely replaces a human being and let me know how much it costs.

One example for those human beings are the killed unborns in the occidental area because they have been being the most humans who have been being completely replaced by machines. If you want to know when, how many, where, under which costs, and why humans are completely replaced by machines you ONLY have to look at the occidental demographic development (especially since the end of the 18th century). The correlation between demography on the one hand and culture (civilisation), economy, intelligence, and - last but not least - technique / technology on the other hand is so obvious that it can not be denied anymore. Look at the data, numbers, and facts of demography and you will find out that the relatively fast decline of the occident is caused by cultural (civilisational) effects which include the economical, scientifical, and - last but not least - technical / technological effects, to which the machines belong.

Table for the machines rates and the fertlity rates since 1770 in the occidental (indusrtial/mecahnical) area: *

Phase / stage | Average machine rate | Average economic status (living standard / wealth / welfare) | Average fertility rate |

1| 1770-1870 |_______ LOW ________|_____________________ LOW ___________________________|_______ HIGH _______|
2| 1870-1970 |______ MIDDLE ______|____________________ MIDDLE __________________________|______ MIDDLE ______|
3| 1970-____ |_______ HIGH _______|_____________________ HIGH ___________________________|_______ LOW ________|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------^---------------
* The declared values are average and relative (compared to the average values from 1770 till today) values, so for eaxmple LOW does not mean generally low, but relatively low, and this relative value is also an average value of one phase. And as said: the values refer to the occidental area, its people, its machines (so: immigrants are not included).

Please notice that this values can clearly show that there is a correlation between machines and fertlity. If the machine rate is high, then the fertility rate is low.

In the first phase (stage) and in the first half of the second phase (stage) the machines cause an increasing population, but in the second half of the second phase (stage) and in the third phase (stage) the machines cause a shrinking population. Because of the fact that the "evolution" of machines is going to lead to more phases, new phases (amongst others because of the so called "progress" and the so called "revolutions") one can generally say that machines cause a shrinking population, in other words: machines replace human beings more and more (in an exponential way!).

And when will the third phase end?
Last edited by Alf on Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Alf
 
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:07 am

Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Arminius » Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:48 pm

Alf wrote:
Arminius wrote:
Only_Humean wrote:Then please, show me a machine that completely replaces a human being and let me know how much it costs.

One example for those human beings are the killed unborns in the occidental area because they have been being the most humans who have been being completely replaced by machines. If you want to know when, how many, where, under which costs, and why humans are completely replaced by machines you ONLY have to look at the occidental demographic development (especially since the end of the 18th century). The correlation between demography on the one hand and culture (civilisation), economy, intelligence, and - last but not least - technique / technology on the other hand is so obvious that it can not be denied anymore. Look at the data, numbers, and facts of demography and you will find out that the relatively fast decline of the occident is caused by cultural (civilisational) effects which include the economical, scientifical, and - last but not least - technical / technological effects, to which the machines belong.

Table for the machines rates and the fertlity rates since 1770 in the occidental (indusrtial/mecahnical) area: *

Phase / stage| Average machine rate| Average economic status (living standard/wealth/welfare)| Average fertility rate |

1| 1770-1870 |_______ LOW ________|_____________________ LOW ___________________________|_______ HIGH _______|
2| 1870-1970 |______ MIDDLE ______|____________________ MIDDLE __________________________|______ MIDDLE ______|
3| 1970-____ |_______ HIGH _______|_____________________ HIGH ___________________________|_______ LOW ________|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------^---------------
* The declared values are average and relative (compared to the average values from 1770 till today) values, so for eaxmple LOW does not mean generally low, but relatively low, and this relative value is also an average value of one phase. And as said: the values refer to the occidental area, its people, its machines (so: immigrants are not included).

Please notice that this values can clearly show that there is a correlation between machines and fertlity. If the machine rate is high, then the fertility rate is low.

In the first phase (stage) and in the first half of the second phase (stage) the machines cause an increasing population, but in the second half of the second phase (stage) and in the third phase (stage) the machines cause a shrinking population. Because of the fact that the "evolution" of machines is going to lead to more phases, new phases (amongst others because of the so called "progress" and the so called "revolutions") one can generally say that machines cause a shrinking population, in other words: machines replace human beings more and more (in an exponential way!).

And when will the third phase end?

One could think: 2070. Right? – What I know for sure in this case is that the third phase will end with the end of the average high economic status.
Image
User avatar
Arminius
ILP Legend
 
Posts: 5555
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:51 pm
Location: Saltus Teutoburgiensis

Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Alf » Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:09 am

Arminius wrote:
Alf wrote:
Arminius wrote:One example for those human beings are the killed unborns in the occidental area because they have been being the most humans who have been being completely replaced by machines. If you want to know when, how many, where, under which costs, and why humans are completely replaced by machines you ONLY have to look at the occidental demographic development (especially since the end of the 18th century). The correlation between demography on the one hand and culture (civilisation), economy, intelligence, and - last but not least - technique / technology on the other hand is so obvious that it can not be denied anymore. Look at the data, numbers, and facts of demography and you will find out that the relatively fast decline of the occident is caused by cultural (civilisational) effects which include the economical, scientifical, and - last but not least - technical / technological effects, to which the machines belong.

Table for the machines rates and the fertlity rates since 1770 in the occidental (indusrtial/mecahnical) area: *

Phase / stage| Average machine rate| Average economic status (living standard/wealth/welfare)| Average fertility rate |

1| 1770-1870 |_______ LOW ________|_____________________ LOW ___________________________|_______ HIGH _______|
2| 1870-1970 |______ MIDDLE ______|____________________ MIDDLE __________________________|______ MIDDLE ______|
3| 1970-____ |_______ HIGH _______|_____________________ HIGH ___________________________|_______ LOW ________|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------^---------------
* The declared values are average and relative (compared to the average values from 1770 till today) values, so for eaxmple LOW does not mean generally low, but relatively low, and this relative value is also an average value of one phase. And as said: the values refer to the occidental area, its people, its machines (so: immigrants are not included).

Please notice that this values can clearly show that there is a correlation between machines and fertlity. If the machine rate is high, then the fertility rate is low.

In the first phase (stage) and in the first half of the second phase (stage) the machines cause an increasing population, but in the second half of the second phase (stage) and in the third phase (stage) the machines cause a shrinking population. Because of the fact that the "evolution" of machines is going to lead to more phases, new phases (amongst others because of the so called "progress" and the so called "revolutions") one can generally say that machines cause a shrinking population, in other words: machines replace human beings more and more (in an exponential way!).

And when will the third phase end?

One could think: 2070. Right? – What I know for sure in this case is that the third phase will end with the end of the average high economic status.

If the average machine rate will remain high and the average fertility rate will remain low, but the average economic status will shrink, then it will become clear that machines are in the long run a bad thing.
User avatar
Alf
 
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:07 am

Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Arminius » Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:43 am

Yes, but the shrunken average economic status will perhaps (thus: not certainly) cause a shrinking average machine rate. The answer to the question whether the average machine rate will shrink then or not will probably depend on the development status of the machines. If they will not sufficiently enough be developed then, then the average machine rate will certainly shrink. But the crux is that the humans will try to avoid a shrinking average economic status, although, if they will do, this will lead to an even higher average machine rate and at last to the extinction of all humans. Nevertheless, there are many reasons to believe that the average economic status will shrink and cause a shrinking average machine rate. Like I said: I know that the everage economic status will shrink, but I do not know whether this will really lead to a shrinking average machine rate or not, since the development status of the machines at that time in the future is currently quite unknown.
Image
User avatar
Arminius
ILP Legend
 
Posts: 5555
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:51 pm
Location: Saltus Teutoburgiensis

Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Fixed Cross » Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:08 pm

Alf wrote:the only chance for the humans’ survival in the future will be to become more and more similar to the machines, because otherwise humans will likely disappear.

You've actually argued for the opposite.
The more people adapt to machines, the lower fertility rate gets.
Thunderbolt steers all things.

Image

I've been guided somewhat by William Blake's quote: "I must create a system or be enslaved by another mans; I will not reason and compare: my business is to create". Just change 'system' for 'style'. - Bill

The strong do what they can, the weak accept what they must.
- Thucydides
User avatar
Fixed Cross
Doric Usurper
 
Posts: 6865
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:53 am
Location: Thrudheim


Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Alf » Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:51 pm

Rodney Brooks wrote:The Seven Deadly Sins of Predicting the Future of AI.

Today, there is a story in Market Watch that robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years (**). It even has a graphic to prove the numbers.

MRH.jpg
MRH.jpg (116.11 KiB) Viewed 76 times

For instance, it appears to say that we will go from 1 million grounds and maintenance workers in the US to only 50,000 in 10 to 20 years, because robots will take over those jobs. How many robots are currently operational in those jobs? ZERO. How many realistic demonstrations have there been of robots working in this arena? ZERO. Similar stories apply to all the other job categories in this diagram where it is suggested that there will be massive disruptions of 90%, and even as much as 97%, in jobs that currently require physical presence at some particular job site.
User avatar
Alf
 
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:07 am

Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Arminius » Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:12 pm

Alf wrote:
Rodney Brooks wrote:The Seven Deadly Sins of Predicting the Future of AI.

Today, there is a story in Market Watch that robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years (**). It even has a graphic to prove the numbers.

Image

For instance, it appears to say that we will go from 1 million grounds and maintenance workers in the US to only 50,000 in 10 to 20 years, because robots will take over those jobs. How many robots are currently operational in those jobs? ZERO. How many realistic demonstrations have there been of robots working in this arena? ZERO. Similar stories apply to all the other job categories in this diagram where it is suggested that there will be massive disruptions of 90%, and even as much as 97%, in jobs that currently require physical presence at some particular job site.

That is a good article, Alf.

Thanks.
Image
User avatar
Arminius
ILP Legend
 
Posts: 5555
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:51 pm
Location: Saltus Teutoburgiensis

Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Alf » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:57 pm

Arminius wrote:
Alf wrote:
Rodney Brooks wrote:The Seven Deadly Sins of Predicting the Future of AI.

Today, there is a story in Market Watch that robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years (**). It even has a graphic to prove the numbers.

Image

For instance, it appears to say that we will go from 1 million grounds and maintenance workers in the US to only 50,000 in 10 to 20 years, because robots will take over those jobs. How many robots are currently operational in those jobs? ZERO. How many realistic demonstrations have there been of robots working in this arena? ZERO. Similar stories apply to all the other job categories in this diagram where it is suggested that there will be massive disruptions of 90%, and even as much as 97%, in jobs that currently require physical presence at some particular job site.

That is a good article, Alf.

Thanks.

My pleasure. :)

What I find very intersing is that the retail salespersons have a 90% chance of becoming automated.
User avatar
Alf
 
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:07 am

Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby James S Saint » Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:39 pm

The future of the hue-of-Man is the assembled humanoid.
Clarify, Verify, Instill, and Reinforce the Perception of Hopes and Threats unto Anentropic Harmony :)
Else
From THIS age of sleep, Homo-sapien shall never awake.

The Wise gather together to help one another in EVERY aspect of living.

You are always more insecure than you think, just not by what you think.
The only absolute certainty is formed by the absolute lack of alternatives.
It is not merely "do what works", but "to accomplish what purpose in what time frame at what cost".
As long as the authority is secretive, the population will be subjugated.

Amid the lack of certainty, put faith in the wiser to believe.
Devil's Motto: Make it look good, safe, innocent, and wise.. until it is too late to choose otherwise.

The Real God ≡ The reason/cause for the Universe being what it is = "The situation cannot be what it is and also remain as it is".
.
James S Saint
ILP Legend
 
Posts: 25591
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 8:05 pm

Previous

Return to Philosophy



Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users